Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 210

Reports of Note Due This Week

This is a deliberately lighter data week on the calendar following the FOMC’s blockbuster Wednesday, and the absence of inflation data – PCE doesn’t land until April 9 – means the market will be trading headlines rather than releases. The Flash PMI readings on Monday set the early tone for growth sentiment, while Thursday’s jobless claims remain the labor market’s only real-time pulse after February’s shocking -92,000 NFP. With gold now in full technical breakdown mode and Trump’s five-day pause on Iranian energy strikes injecting whipsaw volatility into Monday’s open, every data print this week carries outsized importance.

• Monday:
  9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI (March)
  9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash US Services PMI (March)
• Tuesday:
  10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (March) 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (February, delayed release).
• Wednesday:
  No Reports of Note
• Thursday:
  8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending March 21)
  8:30 AM ET: Advance Durable Goods Orders (February)
• Friday:
  8:30 AM ET: GDP Q4 2025 – Third Estimate (BEA)
  10:00 AM ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (March)

Geopolitics

srael struck Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest – triggering Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Brent crude spiked to $119/barrel and European natural gas jumped 25%. Qatar’s LNG export capacity was reduced by 17%, with repairs potentially taking up to five years. Trump warned against further Israeli strikes on the field unless Iran attacks Qatar again. A joint statement from France, the U.K., Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan called for an immediate moratorium on attacks targeting civilian energy infrastructure.

Facing a 70% surge in U.S. crude prices since the start of the year, the Trump administration temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil, potentially unlocking 140 million barrels worth over $14 billion for Tehran. Analysts criticized the move as strategically contradictory, with one calling it “funding a war against itself.” Brent crude remained around $111/barrel despite the measures. United Airlines warned jet fuel costs had doubled in three weeks, projecting oil could reach $175/barrel, and began cutting flights. Experts warn that as long as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, no sanctions relief will meaningfully stabilize markets.

The U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat report assessed that China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefers peaceful unification if possible, though military pressure is expected to intensify through 2026. The PLA continues making “uneven” progress on capabilities needed for a potential takeover. Separately, China has stepped up pressure on Japan after its prime minister suggested Tokyo could respond militarily to a Taiwan invasion, with Beijing engaging in multi-domain coercive measures aimed at deterring similar statements from other nations.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine and threatened further measures – including cutting electricity transit – unless Russian oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline resume. Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU members still importing Russian oil, and Orbán has vowed to veto new Russia sanctions and the EU’s next seven-year budget if it includes Ukraine aid. The EU has offered funding to repair the damaged pipeline in an effort to ease the standoff. Orbán, facing his toughest election yet on April 12, has built his campaign around an anti-Ukraine platform.