Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 211

Reports of Note Due This Week

U.S. financial markets on Thursday will be eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index which will be released at 8:30 AM. This week also brings us new home sales, the Case Shiller home price index and pending home sales.

• Monday:
  10:30 AM ET: Fed Chair Powell Speech
• Tuesday:
  10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (March)
  10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (February)
• Wednesday:
  8:15 AM ET: ADP Private Payrolls (March)
  8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales (February, delayed)
  10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing
• Thursday:
  8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday:
  8:30 AM ET: March Nonfarm Payrolls – Unemployment Rate -Average Hourly Earnings

Geopolitics

Now in its fourth week, the Iran war has killed over 3,000 people across the region, with more than 1,900 dead in Iran and 1,100 in Lebanon. U.S. crude surpassed $101/barrel, up over 50% since the conflict began. Iran’s IRGC formally declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to vessels from U.S.-allied nations, while also operating a “toll booth” system charging tankers millions for passage. Yemen’s Houthis entered the conflict, launching missiles at Israel for the first time. The IAEA reported a third strike near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. Iran-linked hackers breached FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal email. The G7 called for an immediate halt to civilian infrastructure attacks. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks are reportedly being arranged in Pakistan.

North Korea tested an upgraded high-thrust solid-fuel missile engine, with state media reporting maximum thrust increased to 2,500 kilotons. Analysts suggest the advancement is aimed at developing multi-warhead ICBMs capable of defeating U.S. missile defenses. Kim Jong Un called the test significant for elevating North Korea’s “strategic military muscle,” framing it within the country’s five-year military escalation program. The test follows a parliamentary speech in which Kim referenced the Iran war while pledging to irreversibly cement North Korea’s nuclear status.

Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted roughly 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity – approximately 2 million barrels per day – hitting all three major western export ports and the Druzhba pipeline. Described as the most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian history, the attacks come as global oil prices exceed $100/barrel due to the Iran war. Russia is increasingly reliant on eastward exports to China, though capacity is limited. Ukraine says the campaign is aimed at cutting the oil and gas revenues that fund roughly a quarter of Russia’s state budget.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a widening of Israel’s ground campaign in southern Lebanon, framing it as a defensive “security belt” to push back Hezbollah anti-tank fire. Since operations began March 2, nearly 1,200 people have been killed and over 1 million displaced in Lebanon. Israel has destroyed bridges, established military bases, and is reportedly planning a permanent security zone along key river crossings. The UN Secretary-General warned against replicating the Gaza model in Lebanon.