Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 227
Issue 227 – The Week of August 4th, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,040 | 4,090 |
| 4,000 | 4,113 |
| 3,960 | 4,160 |
| 3,895 | 4,240 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 56.86 | 58.50 |
| 53.00 | 60.03 |
| 50.00 | 63.00 |
| 46.00 | 65.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
All eyes are on Friday’s July NFP – the first jobs report following June’s shocking +57K print (vs. +115K expected) and the subsequent -74K in combined April/May downward revisions. The labor market narrative is under serious pressure, and a second consecutive weak payroll number would do significant damage to the September hike thesis that three FOMC dissenters advanced last Wednesday. Wednesday’s ISM Services and the first post-FOMC Fed speaker appearances from Cook and Daly are the mid-week anchors, and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement Wednesday has added duration implications given the 30-year yield’s surge to a 19-year high last week.
- Monday, August 3
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (July)
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending MoM (June) - Tuesday, August 4
8:30 AM ET: Trade Balance (June)
10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (June)
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders MoM (June) - Wednesday, August 5
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Change (July) | Est: 120K | Prior: 98K
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Services PMI Final (July) | Est: 51.5
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (July)
10:00 AM ET: Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks
10:00 AM ET: SF Fed President Mary Daly speaks
10:00 AM ET: Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) - Thursday, August 6
8:30 AM ET: Challenger Job Cuts (July)
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 1)
8:30 AM ET: Bank of England Rate Decision - Friday, August 7
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (July)
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (July)
8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories
Geopolitics
Trump accused Iran of “unbelievable duplicity” after claiming talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were underway, only for Tehran to publicly deny any negotiations with Washington were taking place. Iran said it was only discussing a temporary transit route with Oman. With roughly six ships transiting the strait daily compared to around 100 in peacetime, Brent crude rose another 2.7%. A cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile near Oman’s coast overnight, with one crew member missing, underscoring the continued danger.
Israeli airstrikes killed at least 13 Palestinians across Gaza on Sunday, a day after Trump announced Hamas had agreed to disarm as part of a U.S.-brokered road map. An Israeli cabinet minister said no deal to halt attacks existed and expressed deep skepticism Hamas would follow through. Hamas accused Israel of deliberately undermining diplomatic progress by intensifying strikes. Israel currently controls approximately 70% of Gaza and has indicated it may seek full control if Hamas does not disarm.
Russia launched over 70 missiles and 280 drones across Ukraine, killing at least nine civilians including children and injuring more than 50. A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace and landed in a rural farming area, prompting NATO to scramble jets and activate ground defenses. Poland called it a “very serious incident” but said there was no indication NATO territory was intentionally targeted. Ukraine’s critical shortage of Patriot interceptors, worsened by the Iran war’s drain on U.S. stockpiles, left many regions exposed.
The U.S. and Japan conducted their first joint currency market intervention in 15 years, purchasing yen after it hit a 40-year low against the dollar above 163 yen. The dollar fell to around 156 yen following the announcement. Japan’s import-dependent economy has suffered heightened inflation from the currency’s prolonged weakness. Trump framed the move as a gesture of friendship, noting the U.S. received “financial benefit” from the intervention.
The Call
Gold and silver are finally starting to show some real life. Gold climbed back above two key levels – $4107/oz and $4117/oz – and is now pushing into the $4130s. As long as it holds above $4100/oz the recovery stays on track. Getting above $4150/oz would be a more convincing sign that buyers are in control. The bigger picture still points downward until gold can reach $4329/oz, but the short term momentum is improving.
Silver is also picking up energy. It broke above the important $59.50/oz level and is now knocking on the door of $60.00/oz – a psychologically significant round number. Getting above $61.00/oz would give buyers a real reason to feel confident. Like gold, the longer term picture still needs work.
Over the weekend there was optimism that tensions with Iran might ease, which briefly pushed gold and silver down – when geopolitical fears fade, safe haven assets like metals tend to dip. But that optimism didn’t last. Iran denied that any direct talks were happening, trouble flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping lane for oil – and oil prices bounced back up. This time gold and silver are responding positively to the renewed tension, which is an encouraging sign.
One thing worth noting – large institutional investors like hedge funds slightly reduced their bets that gold would go up last week, but they’re still holding a very large position overall. That tells us big money hasn’t given up on the rally.
Gold needs $4150/oz. Silver needs to clear $60.00/oz and then $61.00/oz. The market is behaving better – now buyers need to prove they can hold it.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,075 spot and traded in a compressed range through Wednesday’s FOMC — the Fed’s hawkish 9-3 hold with three officials dissenting in favor of an immediate 25bp hike, the most divided vote of the Warsh era, kept gold capped below $4,080 — before Thursday’s Q2 GDP miss at +1.5% (vs. +2.1% expected), cooling June PCE at +3.7% YoY, and suspected Bank of Japan currency intervention driving the dollar below 100 sent gold to the weekly high of $4,113 in early Friday trading before a sharp Friday reversal on dollar recovery and improving UMich consumer sentiment closed gold at $4,050. For the week gold was lower by $25 and finished near the middle of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $101.44, held above 101 through the hawkish FOMC Wednesday, then fell sharply to a low near $99.10 Thursday to close the week near $100.30 – a net weekly decline of approximately 1.14 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio widened marginally from 69.8 to approximately 70.1 on the week, gaining 0.3 points as silver’s Friday reversal from a high of $59.30 to close at $57.75.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,075 | 58.40 |
| High | 4,113 | 59.30 |
| Low | 4,018 | 56.86 |
| Close | 4,050 | 57.75 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
