Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 209

Reports of Note Due This Week

The week of March 16–20 is dominated by the second FOMC meeting of 2026, with the Fed navigating an impossible combination of war-driven inflation pressure and a weakening economy. Several Census Bureau releases normally scheduled for this week have been delayed by the residual effects of the 2025 government shutdown (Retail Sales, Housing Starts/Permits, and Import/Export Prices are not on this week’s calendar).

• Monday:
  8:30 AM – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March) | Prior: 7.1
  9:15 AM – Industrial Production (February) | Prior: +0.7% | Forecast: +0.3%
  9:15 AM – Capacity Utilization (February) | Prior: 76.2% | Forecast: 76.5%
  10:00 AM – NAHB Housing Market Index (March) | Prior: 36
• Tuesday:
  
• Wednesday:
  FOMC Meeting Day 1 begins
  10:00 AM – Pending Home Sales (February)
• Thursday:
  8:30 AM – Producer Price Index, February | Forecast: +0.3–0.7% m/m
  8:30 AM – Core PPI, February | Prior: +0.3% m/m | Forecast: +0.5% m/m
  2:00 PM – FOMC Rate Decision | Current: 3.50–3.75% | Forecast: No change
  2:00 PM – Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Dot Plot – Quarterly update; analysts expect upward inflation revisions and downward GDP revisions reflecting stagflationary shift
  2:30 PM – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference – Focus on Middle East risks, oil/inflation pass-through, and the employment-inflation tradeoff
• Friday:
  8:30 AM – Employment Cost Index (Q4 2025) – Quarterly wage/benefit measure closely watched for wage-price spiral risks

Geopolitics

Facing surging energy prices caused by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, allowing purchases of seaborne Russian crude until April 11. Treasury Secretary Bessent framed it as a short-term stabilization measure, but oil prices remained above $100/barrel. The Kremlin welcomed the move and pushed for further easing. European leaders expressed strong opposition, warning it bolsters Russia’s war economy in Ukraine. The IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels also failed to move markets meaningfully.

Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – issued his first public statement vowing to maintain the Strait of Hormuz blockade and continue strikes on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. His whereabouts remain undisclosed amid Israeli threats to target him, with only a written statement released. A known hardliner with IRGC ties, Mojtaba was previously sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. Analysts warn his continued absence from public view raises questions about regime stability.

Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but responses have been tepid. Japan, France, and China offered no firm commitments, while South Korea said it would “carefully review” the request. Security analysts warn that even a coalition force would face significant operational risks in the narrow waterway, and that a single attack could be enough to halt traffic entirely. Iran’s foreign minister indicated some nations are negotiating directly with Tehran for safe passage.

Serbia has confirmed the purchase of Chinese CM-400AKG air-to-surface ballistic missiles, becoming the first European operator of the weapon. President Vucic announced the acquisition after images of the missiles on Serbian MiG-29s leaked online. Croatia condemned the purchase as destabilizing. The move reflects Serbia’s continued balancing act between NATO and EU aspirations on one hand, and its ties with Russia and China on the other. The missile previously saw combat during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict.