Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 226
Issue 226 – The Week of July 27, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,040 | 4,090 |
| 4,000 | 4,120 |
| 3,920 | 4,160 |
| 3,816 | 4,240 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 57.00 | 59.00 |
| 55.00 | 60.00 |
| 51.00 | 62.00 |
| 48.00 | 64.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is the most consequential week of the quarter for precious metals, with the FOMC decision Wednesday afternoon sitting at the center of a calendar that also contains Q2 GDP, June PCE, the Employment Cost Index, and Thursday’s trio of Bank of England and Bank of Japan decisions – all landing within a 48-hour window. The critical variable heading in is that Wednesday’s hold is no longer the base case it was ten days ago: CME FedWatch showed a 35.8% hike probability as of Friday July 24, up from 87.2% hold probability just one week earlier – a dramatic 23-point shift driven by 187,000 jobless claims (the lowest in decades), WTI crude oil rising 37.5% from July 2 to July 23, and Warsh’s Congressional testimony that reinforced his “price stability at all costs” posture. The PCE on Thursday is the clearest data path to a post-FOMC relief rally for metals if it shows June’s disinflationary energy reversal was genuine.
- Monday, July 27
8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders (June) | Forecast: +1.6% | Prior: −4.5%
8:30 AM ET: Core Durable Goods Orders (June) | Forecast: +0.9% | Prior: +1.4% 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July) | Forecast: −12.0 | Prior: −15.1 | FOMC blackout in effect - Tuesday, July 28 – FOMC Meeting Day 1 begins
10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July) | Prior: 86.0
S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (May) | Major tech earnings begin - Wednesday, July 29
8:30 AM ET: Advance Goods Trade Balance (June) | Forecast: −$98.5B
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (June) | Forecast: +1.1%
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Rate Decision | Current: 3.50%–3.75% | Hold probability 64.2% / Hike probability 35.8% (CME FedWatch as of July 24)
2:30 PM ET: Warsh Press Conference | Microsoft and Meta earnings after close - Thursday, July 30 –
8:30 AM ET: Q2 2026 Advance GDP (Annualized) | Forecast: +2.3% | Prior: +2.1%
8:30 AM ET: Q2 GDP Price Index | Forecast: +2.4% | Prior: +3.1%
8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (June) | Forecast: ~+0.2% MoM / ~3.3% YoY
8:30 AM ET: Headline PCE (June) | Forecast: negative MoM / ~3.4% YoY
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Spending (June)
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims | Bank of England Rate Decision| Bank of Japan Rate Decision | Amazon and Apple earnings after close - Friday, July 31
8:30 AM ET: Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026)
10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)
10:00 AM ET: Chicago PMI (July)
Geopolitics
After 13 consecutive nights of escalating U.S. strikes on Iran, both sides halted attacks over the weekend to allow diplomatic talks to proceed. Brent crude fell below $90/barrel and global stock markets rallied on the news. U.S. Ambassador Waltz confirmed the pause was tied to ongoing talks, noting “internal fighting” on the Iranian side. Iran signaled it would maintain the pause as long as the U.S. did, though with skepticism. Concerns over depleting U.S. munitions stockpiles and Gulf ally relations were also cited as factors behind the decision. Netanyahu traveled to Washington for a Tuesday meeting with Trump on Iran.
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a landmark civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, laying the foundation for American companies to build a nuclear power program in the kingdom. The deal does not appear to include the most rigorous UN inspection standards or an outright ban on uranium enrichment, raising nonproliferation concerns. Congress must vote on the pact but would need a veto-proof majority to block it. Analysts noted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously warned Riyadh would seek nuclear weapons if Iran obtained them.
Despite a pause in direct U.S.-Iran strikes, Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu along the Red Sea coast, threatening a second major global shipping route. The Jizan refinery, capable of processing 400,000 barrels daily, sustained damage. Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea oil export port, intercepted two incoming missiles. Yemen’s civil war ceasefire, in place since 2022, has effectively collapsed as the Houthis joined Iran’s broader war effort. Iran also accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.
South Korea announced it is abandoning its longstanding “denuclearization first” policy toward North Korea, replacing it with a “peace first” approach that initially seeks to freeze rather than eliminate Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Officials argued that insisting on denuclearization as a precondition had prevented any dialogue for seven years while North Korea’s arsenal continued expanding. Seoul said it would intensify diplomacy ahead of anticipated Trump-Xi meetings, which it views as a potential opening for renewed engagement with Pyongyang.
The Call
Gold and silver are starting the week on a positive note, but neither has fully turned the corner yet.
Gold held onto last Friday’s recovery and is sitting around $4096/oz – its first weekly gain in three weeks, which is encouraging. Staying above $4085/oz is a good sign, but the real test is whether it can push through the $4100 – $4119/oz range, which is where sellers have been showing up. As long as gold holds above 4050/oz the recovery stays alive. A drop back below that level would be a warning sign.
Silver is also trying to recover. It’s holding above $58.87/oz but keeps hitting a wall of sellers in the $60.00 – $60.40/oz range. Until it can break convincingly through that zone, buyers don’t have much to celebrate yet.
The Iran situation has shifted again – a pause in fighting has pushed oil prices down sharply, and both the US dollar and interest rates have softened. When the dollar weakens and rates come down, gold and silver tend to benefit. That’s giving metals a boost today. However there are two big events coming later this week – a Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday and key economic data on Thursday – both of which could quickly change the mood in the market.
One other thing worth noting: large institutional investors like hedge funds were still holding significant bets that gold would go up as of last Tuesday. That tells us there’s still genuine belief in a recovery among big players, though that data is always a few days behind.
Gold needs to break through $4100–$4119/oz. Silver needs to clear $60.00 – $60.40/oz. It’s a better start to the week – but both markets still need to prove it can last.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $3,993 spot and then immediately made the weekly low of $3,982 Monday – as Houthi militants attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the Iran conflict and spiking oil – before recovering steadily through Tuesday and Wednesday on easing Treasury yields and a services Flash PMI of 53.6 that beat by more than two full points, making the weekly high of $4,130 on Wednesday before Thursday’s 187,000 jobless claims – the lowest in decades and 25,000 below forecast – drove a sharp reversal below $4,100, with gold closing Friday at $4,051.51 to end the week higher for the first time in six weeks. For the week gold was higher by $58 and finished near the higher end of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $100.73 and posted its biggest weekly gain since mid-June, gaining approximately 0.71 points to close the week near $101.44 as the extraordinary jobless claims print and WTI oil’s 37.5% surge from July 2 to July 23 reinforced the rate-hike premium in the dollar through Thursday and Friday even as mid-week inflation data had briefly weakened it.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed from approximately 72.1 to 69.5 on the week, declining 2.6 points as silver staged its strongest weekly performance in over a month – rising from $55.50 to a Friday close of $58.40, a gain of 5.2% – as physical demand from China’s SGE paper gold closure deadline drove buyers into spot metal ahead of the July 24 settlement cutoff.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 3,993 | 55.50 |
| High | 4,130 | 60.00 |
| Low | 3,982 | 55.50 |
| Close | 4,051 | 58.40 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
