Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 199

Reports of Note Due This Week

U.S. financial markets on Thursday will be eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index which will be released at 8:30 AM. This week also brings us new home sales, the Case Shiller home price index and pending home sales.

• Monday
  – 10:00 ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• Tuesday
  – No reports of note
• Wednesday
  – 5:00 ET – Eurozone CPI (Dec, flash estimate)
  – 8:15 ET – US ADP Employment Report (Dec)
  – 10:00 ET – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  – 10:00 ET – US JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)
• Thursday
  – No reports of note
• Friday
  – 8:30 ET – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
  – 8:30 ET – US Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  – 8:30 ET – Canada Employment Change (Dec)
  – 8:30 ET – Canada Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Geopolitics

Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in federal court in Manhattan after being captured in Venezuela during a major U.S. military operation; both pleaded not guilty to charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy and weapons offenses, while Maduro told the judge he was “kidnapped” from his home in Caracas, and Flores appeared with visible bruising and bandages as her lawyer sought medical attention in detention; outside, protesters gathered both to celebrate and condemn the arrest, the judge scheduled the next hearing for March 17 and noted their right to a consular visit, and the broader fallout escalated with an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting and criticism from multiple countries over possible violations of international law, even as Trump declared the U.S. is “in charge” of Venezuela and signaled it would use oil-related leverage going forward.

North Korea said leader Kim Jong Un oversaw test-flights of hypersonic missiles and called for strengthening the country’s nuclear deterrent, as Pyongyang ramps up weapons demonstrations ahead of a major Workers’ Party congress. The tests, reported by state media after neighboring countries detected multiple ballistic missile launches, were described as assessing readiness and advancing key military technologies capable of evading U.S. and South Korean missile defenses, though outside experts remain skeptical about their performance. The launches came as Lee Jae Myung traveled to China for talks with Xi Jinping, where North Korea’s nuclear program is expected to feature prominently. Analysts say Pyongyang aims to showcase progress in weapons development and may harden its nuclear posture further following recent U.S. actions abroad, which it condemned as proof of Washington’s hostility.

Widespread protests driven by economic hardship have shaken Iran for nearly a week, spreading from Tehran to provincial cities and escalating into violent clashes with security forces, as President Donald Trump threatened possible U.S. intervention if protesters are violently suppressed. Iranian officials blamed the unrest on foreign meddling, warning that U.S. bases could become targets, while analysts say the demonstrations reflect deep anger over sanctions, inflation, currency collapse, corruption and governance failures rather than short-term economic grievances alone. President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged dialogue and accepted some responsibility, but rights groups report multiple deaths, highlighting limits on reform. Experts say whether the protests grow or are crushed will ultimately depend on the response of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has so far remained silent.