Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 198

Reports of Note Due This Week

The week ahead packs a dense schedule of U.S. and Canadian data, with inflation, housing and retail numbers likely to influence precious‑metals trading. Traders will also watch BoC Governor Macklem’s speech and several macroeconomic releases across housing starts, industrial production and retail sales for fresh signals on economic momentum.

• Monday
  – 5:00 – Existing Home Sales & MLS Home Price Index (Nov)
  – 8:30 – Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Nov)
  – 10:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)
• Tuesday
  – 8:15 – ADP National Employment Report (Nov 29)
  – 8:30 – U.S. Employment Report (Nov)
  – 9:45 – S&P Global PMIs (Dec preliminary)
• Wednesday
  – 8:30 – Retail Sales (Nov)
  – 10:00 – Business Inventories (Oct)
• Thursday
  – 8:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)
  – 8:30 – Consumer Price Index (Nov)
  – 10:00 – Leading Indicators (Nov)
• Friday
  – 8:30 – Retail Sales (Oct)
  – 8:30 – New Housing Price Index (Nov)
  – 10:00 – Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Geopolitics

A mass shooting at a Hanukkah celebration on Sydney’s Bondi Beach killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens more in what Australian authorities have declared a terrorist attack deliberately targeting Jewish worshippers. Police identified the suspects as a father and son, ages 50 and 24; officers fatally shot the older man at the scene, while the younger was critically injured and hospitalized. Victims included a Holocaust survivor, a 10-year-old girl, two rabbis and people from several countries. The attack has intensified national concern over rising antisemitism in Australia, prompting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to pledge tougher action against hate crimes and consider further tightening the country’s already strict gun laws. Public mourning has spread nationwide, with tributes at Bondi Beach and landmarks such as the Sydney Opera House, while a bystander who disarmed one of the gunmen has been widely hailed as a hero.

Ukraine and the United States reported “real progress” after a second round of peace talks in Berlin aimed at ending Russia’s war, with Kyiv’s top negotiator Rustem Umerov describing the discussions as constructive and productive. The talks involved U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and European officials, though major obstacles remain, particularly over territorial control in eastern Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled readiness to drop Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership in exchange for strong, legally binding Western security guarantees, but Kyiv continues to reject U.S. pressure to cede territory to Russia. Moscow insists Ukraine withdraw from remaining areas of the Donetsk region it controls, while the Kremlin cautioned against predicting a rapid deal. Fighting continued alongside diplomacy, with Russia and Ukraine launching large-scale overnight drone attacks as negotiations remain unresolved.

South Korean investigators concluded that former President Yoon Suk Yeol spent more than a year planning to impose martial law to sideline political opponents and consolidate power, according to findings released Monday by an independent counsel. The probe said Yoon and close military allies prepared the plan by reshuffling senior commanders, seeking support within the armed forces, and attempting to provoke tensions with North Korea to justify emergency rule, though Pyongyang did not respond. Yoon briefly declared martial law in December 2024, labeling the opposition-controlled legislature “anti-state forces,” but the move collapsed within hours after lawmakers voted it down, leading to his impeachment and eventual removal by the Constitutional Court. Yoon, now jailed and facing rebellion charges, denies wrongdoing, calling the decree a political maneuver. Investigators said Yoon and 23 others have been indicted, while separate bribery probes involving his wife and the Unification Church are ongoing.