Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 200
Issue 200 – The Week of January, 12 2025
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,552.00 | 4,612.00 |
| 4,491.00 | 4,625.00 |
| 4,439.00 | 4,650.00 |
| 4,415.00 | 4,700.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 22.57 | 23.71 |
| 22.00 | 24.24 |
| 21.19 | 25.89 |
| 20.83 | 25.45 |
Subscribe to our Newsletter
Subscribe To Guardian Gold’s Newsletter
Your email address will be used solely for sending you our newsletter and will never be sold, shared, or misused.
Reports of Note Due This Week
A quiet start to the week gives way to a cascade of inflation, housing and manufacturing data. After Monday’s empty calendar, Tuesday’s U.S. CPI and ADP employment estimate will set the tone for Fed expectations, while Wednesday’s retail‑sales and producer‑price figures may confirm the resilience of consumer demand. Thursday brings trade and price indices along with U.S. initial‑claims data; by Friday markets will digest housing‑starts and industrial‑production figures for additional clues on Q1 growth. Traders should also monitor FOMC‐related announcements, the Bank of Canada speech and global inflation data (UK labour statistics and Euro‑zone CPI) highlighted by foreign‑exchange calendars
- Monday
– No major reports of note - Tuesday
6:00 AM – US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 AM – Canada Building Permits (Nov)
8:30 AM – US Consumer Price Index (Dec)
10:00 AM – US New Home Sales (Oct) - Wednesday
8:30 AM – US Producer Price Index (Nov)
8:30 AM – US Retail Sales (Nov)
2:00 PM – US Federal Reserve Beige Book - Thursday
8:30 AM – US Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 AM – US Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)
8:30 AM – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
8:30 AM – Canada Manufacturing Shipments (Nov) - Friday
8:15 AM – Canada Housing Starts (Dec)
9:15 AM – US Industrial Production (Dec)
9:15 AM – US Capacity Utilization (Dec
Geopolitics
President Donald Trump said he is weighing a range of possible responses to Iran’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests, which human rights groups say has killed more than 500 people, as demonstrations driven by economic collapse and opposition to the ruling clerics enter their second week. U.S. officials say Trump has been briefed on options that include both military and non-military measures, with no final decision made, while the president claims Iranian leaders have reached out to negotiate even as he warns action could come sooner if bloodshed continues. Iran’s leadership has accused the U.S. and Israel of fomenting unrest and threatened to treat American and Israeli bases as legitimate targets if attacked, prompting Trump to respond with vows of overwhelming retaliation. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have intensified arrests, internet blackouts and lethal force, labeling protesters “enemies of God,” even as solidarity rallies spread abroad and opposition figures urge demonstrators to keep pressing for regime change.
Russia launched a nationwide overnight assault on Ukraine using the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile for only the second time, a move widely seen as an escalatory signal to Kyiv and the West as peace talks remain stalled. Moscow said the strike targeted drone-production sites and energy infrastructure linked to Ukraine’s military industry in retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on a residence used by Vladimir Putin, a claim rejected by the U.S. and Ukraine as false. Ukrainian officials said the attack involved nearly 250 drones and dozens of missiles, killing at least four people, including a paramedic, and marking the first ballistic missile strike on the western city of Lviv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged a stronger international response, while Britain, France and Germany condemned the strike as unacceptable. Though capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the conventionally armed Oreshnik—boasted by Russia as near-unstoppable—has been questioned by analysts for its military utility, underscoring its role as a political and psychological weapon.
The United States carried out “large-scale strikes” against ISIS targets in Syria on Saturday as part of Operation Hawkeye Strike, a Pentagon campaign ordered by Donald Trump following a Dec. 13 ISIS ambush near Palmyra that killed two U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter. According to U.S. Central Command, the operation hit more than 35 ISIS targets using over 90 precision munitions and more than 20 aircraft, building on earlier December strikes against Islamic State infrastructure and weapons. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the attacks underscored that the U.S. would not forget or relent, while CENTCOM emphasized the mission aimed to degrade ISIS capabilities, deter future attacks, and protect U.S. and partner forces. The strikes followed Trump’s pledge of retaliation after the ambush wounded three additional U.S. personnel, with U.S. officials previously signaling the campaign could last weeks.
The Call
Gold has started the week with renewed strength, pushing into the mid-$4,600s, supported by both technical momentum and rising geopolitical risk. Overnight developments in Iran have added to safe-haven demand, reinforcing a bid that was already in place after a strong start to the year. The market continues to shrug off overbought signals, suggesting underlying demand remains firm.
From the charts, support is layered at 4,573, then 4,552-4,534, followed by 4,491-4,470. A deeper pause would likely find interest near 4,439-4,415. On the upside, resistance sits at 4,612, then 4,625-4,650, with 4,700+ the next major psychological zone.
Momentum is strong, but at these levels we expect consolidation rather than acceleration unless geopolitical conditions deteriorate further. Gold remains firmly in control, though risk management matters here.
Last Week in Review
Gold rallied for a second week as investors navigated mixed economic signals. The yellow metal opened around $4,411/oz on Monday and, after oscillating between $4,409/oz and a weekly high of $4,513.79/oz, settled at $4,509.21/oz on Friday, posting a roughly 2.2 % weekly gain. Early in the week, price action was buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease policy later in 2026; however, by mid‑week gold drifted sideways as traders awaited U.S. nonfarm‑payrolls data and digested the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing. On Friday, strong U.S. payrolls and a dovish interpretation of Fed minutes helped gold close near the week’s high. Silver saw larger swings: it opened at $72.61/oz and rallied to $82.67/oz mid‑week before finishing at $79.79/oz. The surge reflected growing safe‑haven demand and index‑adjustment pressure; silver’s weekly gain of ~9.9 % far outpaced gold’s, narrowing the gold/silver ratio.
- U.S. Dollar Index: The dollar index slipped from roughly 98.9 early in the week to around 98.8 by Jan 12, as investors reacted to news that U.S. prosecutors were investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. TradingEconomics noted that the DXY “slipped to around 98.9 … ending a four‑day rally” and later fell to 98.8206 on Jan 12. A softer dollar provided a tailwind for precious metals.
- Gold/Silver ratio: The ratio started the week near 60.75 (4,411÷72.61) and fell to 56.51 by Friday as silver’s rally outpaced gold’s. The drop of about 4.24 points highlights silver’s relative strength.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,411.00 | 72.61 |
| High | 4,513.79 | 82.67 |
| Low | 4,409.10 | 72.61 |
| Close | 4,509.21 | 79.79 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
