Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 196

Reports of Note Due This Week

For the week ahead, traders will be watching U.S. manufacturing data, labour reports and a highly anticipated speech from the Federal Reserve chair. The first week of December features the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs alongside the November non‑farm payrolls report, while Fed officials-including Chair Jerome Powell-are scheduled to speak. Markets will also follow U.S. productivity figures, weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey, all of which may influence expectations for a December rate cut.

• Monday
  9:30 am – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  9:45 am – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov)
  10:00 am – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) & Construction Spending (Oct)
• Tuesday
  -No major US data releases.
• Wednesday
  8:15 am – ADP National Employment Report (Nov)
  8:30 am – Labour Productivity (Q3) and Trade Price Indices (Sep)
  9:15 am – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sep)
  9:45 am – S&P Global Services PMI Final (Nov)
  10:00 am – ISM Services PMI (Nov)
• Thursday
  7:30 am – Challenger Job‑Cut Report (Nov)
  8:30 am – Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Nov 29)
  10:00 am – Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Nov)
• Friday
  8:30 am – U.S. Employment Report (Nov) – includes non‑farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
  10:00 am – Personal Income & Consumption (Sep) and Factory Orders (Oct)
  10:00 am – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec preliminary)
  3:00 pm – Consumer Credit (Oct)

Geopolitics

Ukrainian naval drones struck two sanctioned oil tankers – the Kairos and the Virat – in the Black Sea as they traveled empty toward Russia’s Novorossiysk port to load oil, marking a sharp escalation in Kyiv’s campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure. Video shared by a Ukrainian security official shows explosive-laden maritime drones hitting both ships, causing major fires and what Kyiv claims are “critical” damages that will sideline the vessels and disrupt Russia’s shadow fleet, which circumvents Western sanctions to export oil. Turkey confirmed the Kairos caught fire and its crew was evacuated, while the Virat was hit twice but remains afloat. The attacks also damaged moorings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal – which handles over 1% of global oil flows – forcing a shutdown and drawing condemnation from Kazakhstan. Turkey, noting the strikes occurred in its Exclusive Economic Zone, warned of serious maritime risks as the conflict increasingly spills into the Black Sea.

President Donald Trump declared Venezuelan airspace “closed” on Saturday as he considers expanding U.S. military action against the country, warning airlines, pilots, and traffickers to avoid the area and signaling potential land-based strikes against alleged drug networks. Venezuela condemned the statement as a “colonial threat” and a hostile violation of its sovereignty, even as some airlines had already begun rerouting flights following heightened FAA warnings. The Trump administration has intensified pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, designating the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization and carrying out nearly two dozen lethal maritime strikes on suspected drug-running vessels since September. With the USS Gerald R. Ford now deployed in the Caribbean, Trump said operations targeting traffickers on land could begin “very soon,” escalating a confrontation that Caracas says is based on fabricated accusations.

Army officers in Guinea-Bissau announced Wednesday that they had deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, suspended the electoral process, sealed the country’s borders and imposed a curfew, declaring a new ruling body called the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order. The takeover came hours before provisional results were due from a fiercely contested presidential election in which both Embalo and challenger Fernando Dias had prematurely claimed victory. Gunfire erupted near key government buildings in Bissau before the coup announcement, though casualties were unknown. Embalo’s spokesperson accused Dias’ camp of orchestrating an attack on the election commission, a claim Dias’ allies denied. The crisis marks another chapter of chronic instability in the coup-prone West African nation, which has experienced multiple coups since independence and where Embalo has said he survived three attempts during his tenure.

International Criminal Court President Judge Tomoko Akane told delegates Monday that the ICC will not bow to pressure from the United States or Russia, after nine staff members – including six judges and chief prosecutor Karim Khan – were sanctioned by President Donald Trump for investigating U.S. and Israeli officials, while Moscow issued warrants for ICC personnel in retaliation for the court’s arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin. Akane said the sanctions have strained the court’s already overstretched resources as it manages expanding investigations, including war crimes cases involving Israel’s offensive in Gaza. The ICC’s weeklong annual meeting opened amid these pressures, with members also addressing Khan’s temporary step-aside during a sexual misconduct investigation. The ICC, founded in 2002 to prosecute major atrocities when states cannot or will not act, depends on member nations to enforce its arrest warrants, a challenge made sharper as powerful nonmember states escalate retaliation.