Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 195

Reports of Note Due This Week

After a tumultuous prior week of gold trading, the upcoming week offers a dense calendar of U.S. macro releases and several key international events. U.S. markets will begin the holiday‑shortened week without major data on Monday before shifting focus to housing and confidence surveys on Tuesday. Wednesday features a barrage of U.S. releases — including the second estimate of third‑quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — while Australia and New Zealand publish inflation and monetary‑policy decisions overnight. Thanksgiving Day on Thursday will see U.S. markets closed, leaving global traders to digest Tokyo CPI and European data; Friday brings final North American GDP readings and several European releases. The table below details the most important reports and events

• Monday
  – None of note
• Tuesday
  8:15 a.m. – ADP National Employment Report
• Wednesday
  8:30 am – Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22), Durable Goods Orders (Oct).
  U.S. Real GDP (Q3 Second Estimate)
• Thursday
  Thanksgiving Day – U.S. markets closed
• Friday
  8:30 – U.S. Real GDP (Q3 third estimate), Canadian GDP (Sept)

Geopolitics

Israel carried out an airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing Hezbollah chief of staff Haytham Tabtabai in its first strike on Lebanon’s capital since June, heightening tensions nearly a year after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Lebanon reported five dead and 25 wounded, while Hezbollah confirmed Tabtabai’s death and warned the attack could trigger wider escalation. Israel said Tabtabai was leading efforts to rebuild Hezbollah’s military capabilities and vowed to continue preventing rearmament. Lebanon’s government condemned the strike and urged international intervention, insisting the area hit was civilian. The incident comes amid renewed Israeli pressure to disarm Hezbollah and ongoing Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has remained largely restrained since the ceasefire, but internal discussions about a response are underway. The broader context includes Lebanon’s weakened state, earlier Israeli strikes on Palestinian sites, and Israel’s disciplinary actions against senior commanders over failures during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “tremendous progress” was made in Geneva talks on a proposed Ukraine peace plan, but confusion over the plan’s origins has stirred tensions among allies. The 28-point proposal – reported to include territorial concessions to Russia, limits on Ukraine’s military, and a bar on NATO membership – has been described by some U.S. senators as a Russian-supplied “wish list,” though Rubio insists the plan was authored by the U.S. with input from both Kyiv and Moscow. European leaders have demanded clarity, warning the terms could leave Ukraine vulnerable. President Zelenskyy welcomed continued dialogue but stressed any deal must ensure “reliable peace” and protect Ukraine’s national interests. Trump has set a Thanksgiving deadline for Ukrainian agreement, though says the proposal is not final. As negotiations continue, mixed messaging from Washington and growing European unease underscore doubts about whether the U.S.-led effort can achieve a workable, widely supported peace framework.

China sharply criticized Japan’s plan to deploy a medium-range missile unit on Yonaguni Island – just 68 miles from Taiwan – accusing Tokyo of deliberately heightening regional tensions and provoking military confrontation. The move comes amid the worst China-Japan diplomatic rift in years, triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remark that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Beijing responded with harsh rhetoric, trade restrictions, and warnings of “crushing” military consequences if Japan intervenes over Taiwan. Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said the deployment is moving ahead to protect Yonaguni and deter aggression. Taiwan’s government, by contrast, welcomed the move, saying Japan has the sovereign right to bolster defenses and that strengthened Japanese capabilities support stability in the Taiwan Strait. The exchange highlights intensifying regional sensitivities as China expands military pressure around Taiwan.