Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 197

Reports of Note Due This Week

The second week of December revolves around the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025. Markets will also parse productivity figures, job openings data and the U.S. Producer Price Index for clues on the pace of disinflation. Outside of the United States, a Bank of Canada rate decision and Canadian/US trade data round out a busy mid‑week schedule. With the Fed widely expected to deliver a quarter‑point cut, traders will focus on Chair Powell’s press conference and the updated Summary of Economic Projections for guidance on the 2026 rate path.

• Monday
  – No Reports of Note
• Tuesday
  6:00 am – NFIB Small Business Economic Trends
  8:30 am – Non‑farm Productivity (Q3 revision)
  10:00 am – Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (October)
• Wednesday
  8:30 am – Employment Cost Index (Q3) (labour cost gauge)
  9:45 am – Bank of Canada policy announcement (expected 25 bp cut)
  10:00 am – Wholesale Trade (Oct)
  2:00 pm – FOMC rate decision & Summary of Economic Projections
  2:30 pm – Fed Chair Powell press conference
• Thursday
  8:30 am – Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Dec 6)
  8:30 am – Producer Price Index (PPI) – Nov
• Friday
  8:30 am – Capacity utilisation (Q3)
  8:30 am – Building permits (Oct) and Wholesale trade (Oct)
  8:30 am – New motor vehicle sales (Nov)

Geopolitics

Thailand launched airstrikes along its disputed border with Cambodia on Monday as both countries accused each other of violating an October ceasefire brokered by the United States after deadly clashes earlier this year. The renewed fighting has displaced more than 50,000 people in Thailand and tens of thousands in Cambodia, with officials reporting at least one Thai soldier and four Cambodian civilians killed. Bangkok said Cambodian forces fired first in several areas, prompting retaliatory strikes on military positions, while Phnom Penh claimed Thai troops initiated the violence. The flare-up follows rising tensions over land-mine incidents and long-standing border disagreements rooted in early 20th-century maps and sovereignty claims around the Preah Vihear temple. Leaders from both sides vowed to defend national territory as regional actors, including Malaysia, urged restraint. The ceasefire contains no mechanism to resolve the deeper territorial dispute, leaving the risk of further escalation.

Fighting intensified in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Friday, just one day after Presidents Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame met in Washington to reaffirm a U.S.-brokered agreement aimed at easing decades of conflict and enabling greater Western mining investment. Despite the diplomatic push, clashes persisted between Congo’s armed forces and the Rwandan-backed M23/AFC rebel group, which is not party to the deal and accused government forces of attacking populated areas. Congo’s military said Rwandan forces were conducting airstrikes, while videos appeared to show civilians fleeing new violence around Luvungi in South Kivu. Analysts said U.S. diplomacy temporarily slowed escalation but failed to address underlying disputes, with both Congo and Rwanda yet to meet commitments made in June. Rebels claimed to have retaken territory and shot down a Congolese drone. Congolese officials reported continued bombardment and displacement, underscoring that fighting on the ground remains disconnected from the agreement signed in Washington.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said parts of a U.S. peace proposal for ending the Ukraine war are unacceptable, signaling that negotiations remain difficult despite intensive U.S. diplomatic efforts. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held five hours of talks in Moscow and were set to meet Ukraine’s negotiator, Rustem Umerov, in Miami. Putin described the discussions as detailed and “necessary” but declined to specify which terms Russia rejected. European leaders, sidelined by U.S.-Russia engagement, questioned Moscow’s intentions while France urged China to help push for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russian strikes continued across Ukraine, hitting Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, and Kherson, injuring civilians, damaging infrastructure, and forcing the shutdown of the Kherson Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian officials reported extensive drone and missile attacks overnight, while Russian authorities said two people were killed in a Ukrainian drone strike in occupied Kherson, underscoring ongoing heavy fighting despite parallel diplomatic activity.

A devastating Nov. 26 fire at Hong Kong’s Wang Fuk Court that killed 159 people has triggered widespread public anger over alleged corruption, lax oversight and failed fire-safety systems, becoming the city’s deadliest man-made disaster since the post-2019 national security crackdown. Investigators say the blaze spread rapidly due to substandard mesh netting and flammable polystyrene window coverings used in renovation work, amid reports that alarms did not sound and residents’ year-long safety complaints were ignored. Beijing and Hong Kong authorities have warned that “anti-China” forces are exploiting the tragedy, with several critics arrested for alleged sedition. Fifteen construction-sector figures and six fire-service contractors have been detained on suspicion of manslaughter or fraud, while an independent inquiry will probe corruption and fire-safety failures. The disaster has shaken the city’s sense of security, prompted emergency inspections across hundreds of buildings, and cast a shadow over upcoming tightly controlled legislative elections.