Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 182

Reports of Note Due This Week

After last week’s inflation and labor‑cost data, markets turn their attention to housing, manufacturing and central‑bank communications.  U.S. housing starts and building permits will provide a read on the residential sector early in the week, while mid‑week brings FOMC meeting minutes and the widely watched Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The week concludes with flash PMI surveys and key employment and manufacturing gauges. Volatility could increase as traders assess whether the Federal Reserve intends to keep policy restrictive.

• Monday (Aug. 18) – 10:00 AM ET: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for August, a barometer of home‑builder sentiment.  8:30 AM ET: U.S. Treasury auctions 3‑month and 6‑month bills.
• Tuesday (Aug. 19) – 8:30 AM ET: U.S. Building Permits (preliminary July) and Housing Starts (July), together with permits and starts month‑on‑month readings.  8:55 AM ET: Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales index.  2:00 PM ET: Release of FOMC meeting minutes from the July 29-30 policy meeting, which may provide clues on future rate‑cut timing.  Throughout the day, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak, and the Jackson Hole Symposium begins in the evening.
• Wednesday (Aug. 20) – 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications and 30‑year mortgage rates.  10:30 AM ET: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report, including crude‑oil, gasoline and distillate stock changes. Additional Fed remarks may surface during the Jackson Hole conference.
• Thursday (Aug. 21) – 8:30 AM ET: Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August (business conditions, new orders, employment and prices paid).  9:45 AM ET: S&P Global composite, manufacturing and services PMI flash readings. Central bankers continue to speak at Jackson Hole.
• Friday (Aug. 22) – 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count, a proxy for energy‑sector investment.  The Jackson Hole symposium concludes, with any major policy signals likely to impact markets.

Geopolitics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington on Monday with top European leaders to meet President Donald Trump, just days after Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a red-carpet welcome in Alaska. Trump has shifted focus toward brokering a “peace agreement” between Russia and Ukraine. In recent posts, however, he placed responsibility on Zelenskyy, suggesting Ukraine must surrender Crimea and abandon NATO membership aspirations – core Kremlin demands. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, is pushing for treaty-level security guarantees akin to NATO’s Article 5, backed by the U.S. and Europe, and believes a ceasefire is essential to start genuine peace talks. The meeting follows a tense February clash between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Zelenskyy at the White House, and comes amid deep unease in Europe after Trump’s display with Putin. While Trump floated “territory swaps” as part of a settlement, Zelenskyy has rejected any land concessions, insisting Russia must end the war it began in 2022. The talks highlight sharp divides over Ukraine’s future security and sovereignty, with Trump signaling flexibility on Russia’s terms while Ukraine and European allies push for ironclad commitments.

Israel announced preparations to move Palestinians from combat zones ahead of a planned offensive in Gaza’s most densely populated areas, with tents set to be supplied through COGAT. Defense officials say the operation is aimed at defeating Hamas, though families of the remaining hostages warn the escalation could endanger those still alive. A nationwide protest is planned in Israel as frustration grows over stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike killed a family in Gaza’s Muwasi area, officially designated a “safe zone,” and health officials report at least 251 malnutrition-related deaths since the war began, underscoring dire humanitarian conditions. The U.N. continues to warn of starvation and disease, citing severe restrictions on aid distribution. Since the conflict erupted in October 2023, over 61,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis have been killed, with casualty figures disputed but widely monitored.

Australia will formally recognize a Palestinian state at the U.N. General Assembly in September, joining Britain, France, and Canada in a growing shift among Western nations. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the move supports a two-state solution as “humanity’s best hope” to end the Gaza conflict and humanitarian crisis, contingent on the Palestinian Authority excluding Hamas from future governance. The announcement follows mounting global concern over severe food shortages in Gaza, where the U.N. reports widespread starvation and more than 217 deaths from malnutrition, including 100 children. New Zealand said it is also considering recognition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized such actions as “shameful,” defending plans for a new Gaza offensive aimed at defeating Hamas and rescuing hostages, while denying claims of starvation. The Gaza Health Ministry says over 61,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s military campaign began after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack.