Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 181

Reports of Note Due This Week

The upcoming week will be dominated by U.S. inflation data and key labour‐market updates.  July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures release on Monday, setting the tone for expectations around Federal Reserve policy.  Later in the week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Import/Export Price Indexes will provide further insight into supply‑chain pressures, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak. Market participants will also watch jobless claims and consumer‑confidence surveys as gauges of economic momentum.

• Monday (Aug. 11) – 08:30 AM ET: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and Real Earnings; key inflation release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  bls.gov.  Traders will also monitor three‑ and six‑month Treasury bill auctions later in the morning.
• Tuesday (Aug. 12) – 06:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July).  08:30 AM ET: U.S. CPI Core and headline revisions and CPI ex food and energy (follow‑up details).  10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June and wholesale inventories data.  02:00 PM ET: Monthly Budget Statement (July). Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin and Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak during the morning.
• Wednesday (Aug. 13) – 07:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications and average 30‑year mortgage rates.  10:00 AM ET: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks; 10:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks.  10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report (crude‑oil, gasoline, distillate inventory changes)
  tradingeconomics.com. A 17‑week Treasury bill auction is also scheduled mid‑morning.
• Thursday (Aug. 14) – 08:30 AM ET: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July (headline, core and ex‑food/energy), accompanied by Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
  tradingeconomics.com.  10:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Several Fed officials may make remarks during the day.
• Friday (Aug. 15) – 08:30 AM ET: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July and Advance Retail Inventories.  10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary August) and inflation expectations. Markets will watch for any additional Fed comments at the end of the week.

Geopolitics

President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff plan took effect Thursday, imposing a baseline 10% duty on most imports and pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to over 17% – the highest since 1935 – with steep increases targeting key trading partners. The duties affect a wide range of goods, from EU appliances and Japanese cars to Chinese toys and South Korean TVs, though some oil, gas, and North American trade deal items are exempt. Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the tariffs could add up to $2,400 in annual costs for a typical U.S. household, with sharp short-term price hikes in clothing and footwear. Trump has also raised tariffs on India and Brazil to 50%, threatened further increases on the EU, and signaled upcoming duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. While the White House touts billions in new revenue and record stock highs, economists warn of rising inflation, slowing job growth – particularly in manufacturing – and growing recession risks. Business leaders report cost-cutting measures, delayed investments, and profit hits, while some analysts caution that stagflation is becoming a real possibility. Legal challenges to Trump’s tariff authority are underway, but for now, the measures remain in force.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans for a new Gaza offensive targeting Hamas strongholds in Gaza City, the “central camps,” and Al-Mawasi, prompting sharp domestic backlash and international condemnation. A group of reserve and retired Israeli air force pilots issued their first explicit call to end the war, citing risks to the 50 remaining hostages-about 20 believed alive-and the toll on civilians. Families of hostages urged nationwide strikes to pressure the government into prioritizing their release. The U.N. and several European nations warned the expanded campaign would worsen Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, where over 61,000 Palestinians have been killed and more than 200 have died from extreme malnutrition since October 2023. Netanyahu denied allegations of a “starvation policy” and pledged safe zones for civilians. The situation escalated further as Al Jazeera reported five staff members killed in an Israeli strike, which the IDF claimed targeted a Hamas operative. The renewed offensive risks deepening regional instability and intensifying global diplomatic pressure on Israel.

Russia formally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, ending self-imposed limits on deploying ground-based missiles with ranges of 500–5,500 km. Former President Dmitry Medvedev framed the move as a response to NATO’s “anti-Russian policy” and U.S. plans to place similar weapons in Europe and Asia, warning rivals to “expect further steps.” The withdrawal comes days before President Trump’s ceasefire deadline for Russia in Ukraine and amid an online exchange between the two leaders, which prompted Trump to deploy two nuclear submarines as a precaution. On the battlefield, Russia continues slow advances in eastern Ukraine while launching drone and missile strikes across multiple regions, killing at least 15 civilians in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy welcomed increased U.S. pressure, stressing that sanctions, weapons, and diplomatic isolation are key to ending the war. Analysts caution that Medvedev’s rhetoric is often inflammatory and designed to provoke, though the INF exit raises long-term strategic risk.