Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 179

Reports of Note Due This Week

This will be a busy week for economic indicators. Key takeaways are Trumps tariff deadline of August 1st for many countries. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S. non-farm payroll, unemployment rate and Jolts will be of major importance to investors.

• Monday, July 28 – none scheduled.
• Tuesday July 29 – 8:30 A.M. Advanced U.S. trade balance, Advanced retail and wholesale inventories. 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index, 10:00 A.M. Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS)
• Wednesday July 30 – 8:15 A.M. ADP employment, 8:30 A.M. GDP, 10:00 A.M Pending home sales, 2:00 P.M. FOMC interest-rate decision, 2:30 P.M. Fed Chair Powell press conference.
• Thursday July 31 –.  8:30 A.M. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 221,000 versus last weeks 217,000, employment cost index, personal income and spending, Personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), 9:45 A.M. Chicago business barometer (PMI).
• Friday Aug 1 – 8:30 A.M. U.S. unemployment report, expected jobs created at 102,000 versus last months 147,000, U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. hourly wages, 9:45 A.M. S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, 10:00 A.M. ISM manufacturing, consumer spending, construction spending.  

Geopolitics

Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm to extend their tariff truce by 90 days, aiming to avoid a sharp escalation in their trade war ahead of an August 12 deadline. Without a deal, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could surge to triple-digit levels, effectively a trade embargo, while China could continue restricting exports of rare earth minerals critical to U.S. industries. The talks follow President Trump’s new trade pact with the EU, which included a 15% tariff on European exports and major energy and investment commitments. While a breakthrough on structural economic issues is unlikely, the expected truce extension would stabilize trade flows and allow time for a possible Trump-Xi meeting later this year. Washington remains focused on curbing China’s state-led export model and protecting tech sectors, while Beijing seeks relief from U.S. export controls. Prolonged tensions highlight supply chain vulnerabilities and may continue to drive investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold.

Russia launched one of its largest recent aerial assaults on Ukraine, striking Kyiv with 426 drones and 24 missiles, killing two and injuring 15. The attack targeted civilian infrastructure and comes as NATO allies meet virtually to coordinate President Trump’s weapons initiative for Ukraine, focused on accelerating air defense support such as Patriot missile systems. Trump last week gave Moscow a 50-day deadline to agree to a ceasefire or face tougher sanctions and called for a “50-day drive” by allies to deliver additional weapons. While European nations have pledged U.S.-made Patriots and other systems, logistical delays mean deployments could take weeks. Ukraine has also proposed a new round of peace talks, but Russia maintains its core demands. The escalation highlights ongoing risks to European security and supply chains and reinforces market focus on safe-haven assets, defense spending, and energy price volatility amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Iran began face-to-face talks in Istanbul with European powers for the first time since U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites last month. Discussions focus on reviving elements of the 2015 nuclear deal and extending U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which expires October 18 and would lift all U.N. sanctions unless renewed or a “snapback” mechanism is triggered. The E3 (France, Britain, Germany) set an end-of-August deadline for Iran to demonstrate cooperation, including allowing IAEA inspections and accounting for 880 pounds of near-weapons-grade uranium that went missing after the strikes. Iran rejected calls to extend Resolution 2231, calling them “meaningless and baseless,” but indicated willingness to discuss inspection logistics. U.S. President Trump previously claimed strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, though assessments suggest only one of three targeted sites was heavily damaged. The outcome of these talks will shape future sanctions risk, oil market stability, and investor sentiment on geopolitical uncertainty.