Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 183

Reports of Note Due This Week

As the Jackson Hole fallout dissipates, markets will turn to a packed U.S. data schedule. New home sales on Monday lead into Tuesday’s durable goods orders and consumer confidence survey. The week finishes with a flurry of key releases: the second estimate of Q2 GDP and jobless claims on Thursday, followed on Friday by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE) and the final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. Traders will also watch international developments, including German inflation, for cross‑asset cues.

• Monday – 10:00AM: U.S. New Home Sales (Jul) – Census Bureau report on new single‑family home sales, a gauge of housing demand
• Tuesday – 8:30AM: Durable Goods Orders (Jul) – Monthly advance report on U.S. durable goods orders (increasing attention following June’s sharp drop).
  Tuesday – 10:00AM: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) – Index of consumer sentiment on business and labor conditions
• Wednesday – 10:30AM: EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories – Petroleum status report; often influences inflation expectations
• Thursday – 8:30AM: Gross Domestic Product, Q2 2025 (Second Estimate) – BEA releases an updated GDP estimate and preliminary corporate profits
  Thursday – 8:30AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Aug 22) – Weekly labor‑market gauge
• Friday – 8:30AM: Core PCE Price Index (Jul) Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; includes month‑over‑month and year‑over‑year measures
  Friday – 9:45AM: Chicago PMI (Aug) Regional manufacturing barometer
  Friday – 10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug Final) – Final reading of August consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan notes the final data will be released at 10 AM ET on Aug 29

Geopolitics

A week after President Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, momentum toward ending the Ukraine war has slowed as Moscow signals reluctance to advance talks. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Putin is willing to meet President Zelenskyy only if a substantive agenda is prepared, contradicting Trump’s claims that a summit was already in the works. Trump has floated a two-week deadline before deciding whether to impose heavy sanctions, tariffs, or step back entirely, but Western officials warn delays allow Russia to consolidate battlefield gains. U.S. and European leaders remain divided on key issues, particularly Ukraine’s security guarantees and territorial status, while Moscow rejects NATO involvement. Frustration is mounting in Washington and Europe, with lawmakers considering secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Russia. Analysts note that Putin benefits from prolonging the conflict, raising doubts about Moscow’s commitment to peace. Meanwhile, Trump continues to pursue diplomatic engagement alongside efforts to bolster his international reputation, including speculation around a Nobel Peace Prize nomination.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global authority on hunger, formally declared famine in northern Gaza, including Gaza City, on Friday. The IPC estimates 514,000 people – roughly one-quarter of Gaza’s population – are now experiencing famine conditions, with the number projected to rise to over 640,000 by the end of September if conditions persist. This is only the fifth formal famine declaration since the system was created in 2004. Aid groups and U.N. agencies warn that restricted food access, water contamination, and collapsing health services are driving mortality, with Gaza’s Health Ministry reporting 266 deaths from starvation, including 112 children. Israel rejected the IPC’s findings, calling them politically motivated, while Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed intensified operations in Gaza City unless Hamas agrees to Israel’s terms, including disarmament and hostage releases. The declaration comes amid preparations for expanded Israeli military action, raising fears of further displacement and worsening humanitarian conditions.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi held urgent calls with his French, German, and British counterparts on Friday in an effort to head off the threatened “snapback” of U.N. sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal. The three European powers have given Tehran until August 31 to restore cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which lost visibility on Iran’s nuclear program after Israel’s June strikes on its atomic sites and Tehran’s decision to cut off inspections. At stake is Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% – a short step from weapons grade – and the Europeans’ ability to act before their snapback authority expires in October, when China and Russia could veto sanctions at the U.N. Security Council. Araghchi downplayed the threat, saying Iran would consult with “friends” like Moscow and Beijing, while still insisting its program is peaceful. Meanwhile, the IAEA confirmed talks in Vienna to press for renewed monitoring, a key condition for avoiding sanctions, though tensions deepened after Iran threatened agency chief Rafael Grossi. If snapback is triggered, it would reimpose all pre-2015 U.N. sanctions on Iran’s economy and arms trade, with potentially wide-reaching effects on energy markets, global shipping, and regional stability.