Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 161

Reports of Note Due This Week

Key takeaways this week will be the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation along with consumer sentiment reports and housing data.

• Monday, Mar 24– 9:45 A.M. S&P flash U.S. services PMI and S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI.
• Tuesday Mar 25 – 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index, 10:00 A.M. Consumer confidence and new home sales.
• Wednesday Mar 26 – 8:30 A.M. Durable-goods orders.
• Thursday Mar 27 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 226,000 versus last weeks 223,000, GDP (second revision), advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, advanced retail inventories and advanced wholesale inventories. 10:00 A.M. Pending home sales.
• Friday Mar28 – 8:30 A.M. Personal income, Personal spending and the PCE index. 10:00 A.M. Consumer sentiment (final).

Geopolitics

Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed 85 people overnight Wednesday, bringing the death toll to nearly 600 since the collapse of the recent ceasefire. The ceasefire, which began on January 19 and had initially enabled significant prisoner exchanges, fell apart after Hamas refused to release more hostages as demanded by Israel. In response, Israel resumed military operations, including imposing a blockade on northern Gaza and targeting densely populated civilian areas. Hamas has launched rockets into Israel during this period, though without causing casualties. The escalation comes amid political turmoil within Israel, including the dismissal of the head of its internal security service, and growing pressure from far-right factions. With both sides entrenched and civilian suffering mounting, the conflict shows signs of becoming increasingly protracted.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for a snap election scheduled for April 28 amid escalating tensions with the U.S. over trade tariffs and sovereignty threats from President Donald Trump. Carney, who recently succeeded Justin Trudeau, is seeking a strong mandate to counter Trump’s economic and territorial challenges. The election, moved up from its original October 20 date, was announced following discussions with Governor General Mary Simon. As campaigning begins, Carney faces key rivals from the Conservative Party, Bloc Québécois, and the New Democratic Party.

Shortly after agreeing to a partial ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine experienced continued attacks, contradicting the ceasefire terms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared images of the aftermath in Kirovohrad region, emphasizing that the Russian assaults persist. The Ukrainian State Emergency Service posted additional images of the devastation. Despite the ceasefire, Russia deployed around 200 attack drones, causing injuries and property damage, but Ukraine’s air defenses managed to shoot down a significant number of these drones.

Germany’s parliament has approved significant increases in defense spending to bolster European collective defense capabilities in response to perceived threats from Russia and shifts in U.S. policy under President Donald Trump. Chancellor Friedrich Merz described this as a critical step towards establishing a new European defense community. The plan includes creating a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and modifying borrowing rules to allow increased security spending. The legislation now moves to the Bundesrat for further approval.