Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 221
Issue 221 – The Week of June 15, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,126 | 4,280 |
| 4,023 | 4,340 |
| 3,950 | 4,420 |
| 3,816 | $4,530 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 63.00 | 66.00 |
| 60.00 | 68.00 |
| 55.00 | 71.00 |
| 50.00 | 74.00 |
Subscribe to our Newsletter
Subscribe To Guardian Gold’s Newsletter
Your email address will be used solely for sending you our newsletter and will never be sold, shared, or misused.
Reports of Note Due This Week
This is Warsh’s first FOMC week and a four-day trading week – U.S. markets close Friday June 19 for Juneteenth. The rate hold on Wednesday is fully priced at 97%+ probability; what is not priced is whether Warsh uses his first press conference to announce the elimination of the dot plot and the Summary of Economic Projections, a move he has publicly signaled since his confirmation. If he does, it would represent the most significant structural change to Fed communication in over a decade and would remove the single most closely watched forward-guidance tool the market has relied on for six years. Retail Sales on Wednesday morning and Jobless Claims Thursday are the data anchors, but all eyes are on the 2:00 PM statement and the 2:30 PM press conference.
- Monday, June 15
8:30 AM ET: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June) Prior: 13.7
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production (May) Prior: +0.3% - Tuesday, June 16
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts (May) Prior: 1.35M
8:30 AM ET: Building Permits (May) FOMC Meeting Day 1 begins - Wednesday, June 17
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales (May) Prior: −0.2%
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Rate Decision – Hold at 3.50–3.75% expected
2:00 PM ET: Summary of Economic Projections and Dot Plot – May be Warsh’s last dot plot if he announces its discontinuation
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Warsh First Press Conference - Thursday, June 18
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims Prior: 213K
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June) Prior: 12.1 - Friday, June 19
U.S. Markets Closed – Juneteenth National Independence Day
Geopolitics
The U.S. and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing scheduled in Switzerland on Friday. The 14-point memorandum commits both sides to an immediate and permanent ceasefire including Lebanon, lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and unfreezing approximately $24 billion in Iranian assets. Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with detailed nuclear negotiations deferred to a 60-day follow-on period. U.S. crude fell over 4.5% to $80/barrel on the announcement. Israel signaled it would not withdraw from Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza regardless of the deal’s terms.
EU ambassadors agreed to formally open membership accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, with the first cluster of negotiations beginning Monday. The move follows Hungary’s new government lifting its longstanding veto after reaching an agreement with Kyiv on minority rights. EU leaders called the decision a recognition of Ukraine’s determination to pursue reforms despite the ongoing war with Russia. EU accession is a multi-year process requiring reforms across dozens of policy areas.
Taiwan’s military test-fired its U.S.-made HIMARS rocket system from its western coast for the first time, simulating strikes against an invading Chinese force across the Taiwan Strait. The drill demonstrated the system’s “shoot-and-scoot” mobility designed to evade Chinese radar. With a range of approximately 190 miles, HIMARS could reach targets in China’s southeastern Fujian province. The exercise reflects Taiwan’s broader strategy of building asymmetric defense capabilities to deter a potential Chinese amphibious assault.
The Call
Gold and silver are finally moving up after a rough stretch.
Gold climbed back above 4307/oz and pushed through 4333/oz this week, which is a good sign. The market looked exhausted last week and buyers finally stepped back in. That said, gold still needs to get above 4569/oz before the overall trend looks healthy again, with 4466/oz being the next important level to watch along the way. For now this looks more like a bounce off the lows than the start of a real upward move.
Silver is also looking better than it did a week ago, recovering above 66.39/oz and pushing through 67.35/oz. It had been falling for five straight weeks, so buyers showing up is encouraging. Silver needs to reach 77.26/oz before the bigger picture looks strong, but at least it’s heading in the right direction.
What’s helping metals right now: A deal with Iran is pushing oil prices down, which takes some pressure off inflation fears. When people worry less about inflation, it changes how money moves around markets. On top of that, the US dollar has weakened slightly – and when the dollar drops, gold and silver tend to rise because they become cheaper for buyers in other countries.
Bottom line: Buyers are in control right now and the market is behaving better. But metals haven’t broken through the key levels needed to call this a real rally yet. Cautiously better – not a clear buy signal.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,340 spot and then traded lower all week as the May CPI print on Wednesday – 4.2% YoY, +0.5% MoM, the fastest annual rate since early 2023 – pushed rate-hike odds to 72% and combined with Thursday’s Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to send gold to a weekly low of $4,023, its weakest level since November 2025, before a decisive Friday reversal powered by core PPI coming in at 4.9% versus the 5.4% consensus – confirming energy was driving inflation, not embedded services – allowed gold to close at $4,216. For the week gold was lower by $124 and finished near the middle of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened the week near $100.01, surged to approximately $101.50, closing the week near $100.45 – a net weekly gain of approximately 0.44 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio widened from 63.3 to approximately 64.6 on the week, gaining 1.3 points as silver’s decline from $68.57 to a Friday close near $65.25 modestly outpaced gold on a percentage basis.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,340 | 68.57 |
| High | 4,340 | 68.57 |
| Low | 4,023 | 63.00 |
| Close | 4,216 | 65.25 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
