Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 222
Issue 222 – The Week of June 22nd, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,126 | 4,200 |
| 4,023 | 4,242 |
| 3,950 | 4,280 |
| 3,816 | 4,376 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 65.00 | 69.00 |
| 61.00 | 71.00 |
| 57.00 | 74.00 |
| 53.00 | 79.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
Two opposing forces converge this week – the first full slate of post-FOMC Fed speaker appearances now that the blackout has lifted, and Thursday’s May PCE print, the most important inflation read since the FOMC’s hawkish pivot. The Fed signaled 25 basis points of hikes in 2026 on nine of eighteen submitted dots; the PCE will either validate that hawkish lean or undercut it. With the Iran MOU signed and the Strait of Hormuz reopening on a 30-day timeline, energy prices continue to fall – which makes a below-forecast PCE entirely plausible and would be the most powerful near-term catalyst to reverse gold’s recent technical damage. Flash PMIs on Monday are the first growth read since the Iran deal.
- Monday, June 22
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI (June) Prior: 55.3
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash US Services PMI (June) Prior: 51.7 - Tuesday, June 23
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) | Prior: (pending)
10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) | Prior: 86.0 | Multiple Fed speaker appearances expected throughout the day = first public commentary from FOMC members since the June 17 blackout lifted - Wednesday, June 24
No tier-1 U.S. data releases.
Fed speakers – Warsh’s first post-FOMC public comments will be parsed closely for any softening or reinforcement of the hawkish dot plot message - Thursday, June 25
8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (May) Forecast: +0.5% MoM / +4.1% YoY (Wells Fargo)
8:30 AM ET: Core PCE (May) Forecast: +0.3% MoM / +3.4% YoY
8:30 AM ET: GDP Q1 2026 – Third (Final) Estimate Prior (Second): +1.9%
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims Prior: 226K
8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders (May, Preliminary) Prior: 0.0% - Friday, June 26
8:30 AM ET: Advanced Goods Trade Balance (May)
10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June) Prior Prelim: 48.9 | 1-year inflation expectations prior: 4.6% (down from 4.8%)
Geopolitics
Keir Starmer announced his resignation as British Prime Minister Monday, becoming the country’s seventh leader in a decade after losing the support of his Labour Party. His likely successor is Andy Burnham, the popular former Greater Manchester mayor who returned to Parliament last week and quickly confirmed he would seek the leadership. Starmer’s downfall followed a series of scandals, policy reversals, historic local election losses to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and cabinet resignations. A new leader is expected by September 1.
Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian digitally signed the memorandum of understanding to end the war, with VP Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker also signing. The G7 issued a joint statement welcoming the deal and pledging tougher sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, notable for Trump’s co-signature. The 14-point framework commits Iran to no nuclear weapons, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the U.S. naval blockade, and unfreezes approximately $24 billion in Iranian assets, with detailed nuclear negotiations deferred to a 60-day follow-on period. Senate Democrats condemned the deal while most Republicans offered cautious support.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched a six-month review of U.S. military forces in Europe at a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, conditioning their future presence on how quickly European allies assume primary responsibility for their own defense. He sharply criticized allies for denying U.S. forces base access during the Iran war, calling it “shameful.” Hegseth called for a “NATO 3.0” overhaul and announced $1.5 trillion in U.S. defense spending for 2027. The U.S. has already signaled it will no longer automatically supply an aircraft carrier, aerial refueling planes, and dozens of fighter jets in a European crisis.
With the Iran framework signed, Trump signaled a renewed focus on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, meeting with President Zelenskyy at the G7 summit in France and saying he would do “whatever I can” to help broker a deal. Trump said he had productive calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of the summit. European leaders welcomed the shift, though no formal negotiations are imminent. Russia’s Kremlin indicated American negotiators could visit Moscow “soon” while dismissing any G7 invitation for Putin.
The Call
Gold and silver are trying to find their footing, but neither one has made a convincing move yet.
Gold bounced back up around the 4200/oz price level and is holding above 4194/oz, which is a small positive. But it still needs to climb above 4250/oz to start looking more stable, and above 4300/oz to look genuinely healthy. The bigger picture still points downward until gold can reach 4431/oz – and it’s a long way from the 4650/oz level that would signal a real trend change.
Silver is behaving a little better. It’s holding above two key levels – 65.29/oz and 66.39/oz – and buyers have started showing interest again. But silver still has work to do on the longer term view. It needs to get above 67.00/oz to start looking more convincing.
The big story this week is the Iran deal. An agreement with Iran means more oil supply, which has pushed oil prices down sharply. Lower oil generally means less inflation worry, and when investors feel calmer about inflation they tend to move money out of safe havens like gold and silver. The fact that gold has only bounced modestly despite all this positive news is actually a bit of a warning sign – you’d normally expect a stronger reaction. Gold needs 4250/oz. Silver needs 67.00/oz. Until then, neither market is acting well enough to get excited about.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,216 spot and then traded sharply higher Monday on the Iran memorandum of understanding announcement – oil fell 5%, the dollar retreated, and rate-hike odds fell from near 90% to 60% in a single session – making the weekly high of $4,381 on Wednesday morning before the FOMC’s hawkish dot plot landed at 2:00 PM, stripping all forward guidance language, projecting the median year-end rate at 3.8% versus March’s 3.4%, and showing nine of eighteen officials forecasting a hike – sending gold below $4,200 Thursday and to a weekly low of $4,122 in Friday’s thin Juneteenth session before recovering to close at $4,155. For the week gold was lower by $61 and finished near the lower end of our range, posting its third consecutive weekly decline despite the midweek pop.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $100.45, fell to approximately $99.30 then surged to its highest level since May 2025 near $101.50 on the hawkish FOMC, and closed the week there – a net weekly gain of approximately 1.05 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed from 64.6 to approximately 61.1 on the week, declining 3.5 points as silver’s outsized Monday surge – from $65.25 to $71.00 on the Iran deal’s industrial demand implications – more than offset Thursday’s sharp post-FOMC selloff, with silver closing the week near $68.00.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,216 | 65.25 |
| High | 4,381 | 71.00 |
| Low | 4,122 | 64.00 |
| Close | 4,155 | 68.00 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
