Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 202

Reports of Note Due This Week

A pivotal week in late January will see a slew of high‑impact releases. Markets will watch U.S. durable‑goods orders to gauge industrial demand, followed by a pair of central‑bank decisions. The Bank of Canada will announce its first policy rate decision of 2026 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing. Later in the week, traders will parse U.S. personal‑income and spending data, trade figures, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges.

• Monday:
  8:30 – U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Nov)
  11:30 – U.S. 13‑ & 26‑week bill auctions
• Tuesday:
  8:15 – ADP National Employment Report Estimate (Jan 10)
  9:00 – S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (Nov) / FHFA House Price Index (Nov)
  10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Jan)
• Wednesday:
  9:45 – Bank of Canada policy announcement and Monetary Policy Report
  2:00 – FOMC announcement
  2:30 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell press briefing
• Thursday:
  8:30 – U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance (Nov), Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Nov), Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 24), Personal Income & Consumption (Dec), Productivity (Q3 rev.), Goods & Services Trade Balance (Nov) and Wholesale Trade (Nov)
• Friday:
  8:30 – Canada Monthly Real GDP (Nov) & U.S. Producer Price Index (Dec).

Geopolitics

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi for a second day as Russia launched a massive overnight barrage of drones and missiles that knocked out power and heat for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in subzero temperatures, prompting Kyiv to accuse Vladimir Putin of acting cynically. Ukrainian officials said the strikes underscored Moscow’s lack of commitment to peace, while talks-described by Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the first trilateral meetings under U.S. mediation-grappled with core issues including Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede remaining territory in Donbas, a key sticking point Kyiv rejects amid public opposition to concessions. Despite upbeat signals from U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Kremlin officials sounded skeptical, and Ukraine pressed for fuller delivery of promised air-defense support as Donald Trump’s administration urges progress toward a deal.

The U.S. Defense Department’s 2026 National Defense Strategy marks a major shift in military priorities, placing the homeland and the Western Hemisphere ahead of China for the first time in years. The strategy emphasizes border security, counter-narcotics efforts, and protecting U.S. military and commercial access to strategic areas from the Arctic to South America, explicitly invoking the Monroe Doctrine and naming Greenland, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of America as key terrain. China is now listed as the second priority, with the Pentagon saying it seeks to deter Beijing “through strength, not confrontation,” while enabling a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Other priorities include pushing allies to shoulder more defense responsibilities and rebuilding the U.S. defense industrial base. Russia receives comparatively limited attention, described as a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern flank. The document reflects the foreign policy approach of Donald Trump, emphasizing U.S. interests and rejecting past nation-building efforts.

President Donald Trump said an American “armada” is heading toward Iran as activists reported the death toll from Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide protests has surpassed 5,000, calling it the deadliest since the 1979 revolution. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump claimed his threats of military action forced Iran to halt planned executions of hundreds of protesters, a claim Iranian officials flatly denied as false. The U.S. has already deployed a carrier strike group, additional aircraft, and air defense systems to the region, which Trump described as a precaution he hopes will not be used. Iran says order has been restored and disputes activist figures, while a U.N. fact-finding mission reported evidence of widespread human rights abuses including arbitrary killings, torture, and mass arrests amid an ongoing internet blackout. Despite escalating rhetoric, Trump said Iran remains open to negotiations and that talks could still take place.

America’s allies are increasingly concluding that the postwar, rules-based global order is not coming back as they absorb the implications of Donald Trump’s second-term foreign policy, highlighted by threats, tariffs and an aggressive campaign to assert U.S. control over Greenland. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said he would not use force to take the Danish territory, but his rhetoric and economic pressure have convinced many allies that a permanent shift is underway. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the world is now defined by raw power rather than shared rules, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney bluntly described the moment as a “rupture, not a transition,” arguing that the old order is finished and that great powers now openly weaponize trade, finance and supply chains. Together, their remarks underscore a growing acceptance among U.S. allies that nostalgia for the previous international system is futile and that they must adapt quickly to a harsher, more transactional global reality.