Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 203
Issue 203 – The Week of February 2, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,650.00 | 5,000.00 |
| 4,550.00 | 5,100.00 |
| 4,450.00 | 5,200.00 |
| 4,350.00 | 5,400.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 75.00 | 95.00 |
| 70.00 | 100.00 |
| 65.00 | 110.00 |
| 60.00 | 115.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
The first week of February contains a mix of manufacturing data, labour‑market gauges and major central‑bank decisions. U.S. manufacturing PMIs on Monday will reveal whether the goods sector maintained momentum into 2026, while Wednesday’s ADP employment and ISM services data offer a mid‑week check on the jobs and services sectors. Market focus then turns to a trio of central‑bank meetings-RBA on Tuesday, Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday-and finishes with the all‑important U.S. January employment report on Friday.
- Monday:
8:45 PM ET (Sun) – China Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
9:30 AM ET – Canada Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
10:00 AM ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) - Tuesday:
10:00 AM ET – US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) - Wednesday:
8:15 AM ET – US ADP Employment Report (Jan)
8:30 AM ET – US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
10:00 AM ET – US ISM Services PMI (Jan) - Thursday:
7:30 AM ET – US Challenger Job Cuts Report (Jan)
8:30 AM ET – US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) - Friday:
8:30 AM ET – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
8:30 AM ET – US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
8:30 AM ET – Canada Employment Report (Jan)
10:00 AM ET – US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb, prelim)
10:00 AM ET – Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)
Geopolitics
President Donald Trump said a powerful U.S. naval “armada,” led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, has arrived in the Middle East and is prepared to act against Iran with “speed and violence” if necessary, escalating tensions after weeks of deadly nationwide protests there. Trump said the fleet is larger than the one used to blockade Venezuela and warned Tehran that “time is running out” to negotiate a deal barring nuclear weapons, threatening strikes worse than last summer’s bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Activist groups say more than 6,000 people have been killed in Iran’s crackdown, a figure Tehran disputes. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s claims that U.S. threats halted executions and warned that any American attack would trigger an immediate, unprecedented war, while also signaling they remain open to dialogue but will defend themselves if pushed.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any U.S. military strike would trigger a “regional war,” sharply escalating tensions as Donald Trump weighs action against Iran over its violent crackdown on nationwide protests. With U.S. warships led by the USS Abraham Lincoln deployed to nearby waters and Iran planning live-fire drills near the Strait of Hormuz, Khamenei labeled the unrest a foreign-backed “coup” and warned of harsh punishment, raising fears of mass executions. Activists say thousands have been killed and tens of thousands detained, figures Tehran disputes, while Iran’s parliament moved to brand E.U. militaries as terrorist groups after the bloc targeted the Revolutionary Guard. Trump has set red lines around killings or executions of protesters, says Iran is “seriously talking” about negotiations—including its nuclear program—but has not ruled out strikes, leaving the standoff unresolved.
Confusion followed comments by Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin had agreed to pause strikes on Kyiv for a week because of extreme cold, as officials in Russia and Ukraine offered conflicting interpretations. Trump said Putin personally agreed to halt attacks, but provided no timeline or details, while the Kremlin confirmed the request yet was vague on whether a full pause was accepted, with mixed signals from Russian state media. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there was no formal ceasefire or direct agreement, calling Trump’s outreach an American initiative rather than a binding deal, even as Russia continued launching missiles and drones across the country. Zelenskyy said Kyiv would support de-escalation and refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same, underscoring how uncertain and fragile any temporary lull remains.
China’s military leadership has been thrown into turmoil after authorities announced an investigation into Gen. Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and longtime ally of Xi Jinping, along with another senior general, in what analysts see as the most significant purge yet of the armed forces. Official statements cited serious disciplinary and legal violations, while state media hinted at corruption and political disloyalty, signaling that loyalty to Xi now outweighs combat experience. The removal of Zhang — once considered untouchable — deepens Xi’s consolidation of power but, experts warn, also raises the risk of miscalculation over Taiwan, as remaining commanders may be unwilling to advise caution against military action, leaving a politically aligned but potentially less restrained People’s Liberation Army at a sensitive moment.
The Call
Last week reinforced just how unstable this market has become. Gold experienced violent two-way trade, breaking sharply before stabilizing. In this environment, precision levels give way to zones. From the big-picture charts, major gold support sits broadly in the 4,400–4,700 range, while resistance is layered from 5,000 up through 5,500. These wide bands reflect the current volatility regime.
Silver remains the amplifier. After last week’s extreme move and retracement, the market is attempting to base, with structural support in the low-70s to high-70s zone and overhead resistance broadly defined from the mid-90s back toward the prior highs.
Geopolitics continue to dominate. Iran remains a live risk, with U.S. naval forces moving into the region and escalation, via blockade or direct action, a non-trivial possibility. Add in a Fed meeting mid-week last week, leadership uncertainty at the Fed, and a heavy economic calendar, and it’s clear why risk appetite remains fragile. Volatility is likely to stay elevated; positioning remains cautious.
Last Week in Review
Gold prices experienced a roller‑coaster week, surging to new all‑time highs before plunging as investors took profits. The week began with gold at $5,073 per oz, and robust safe‑haven demand pushed it above $5,500 by mid‑week—spot gold briefly topped $5,560.37 on Thursday. However, the rally proved unsustainable: a wave of profit‑taking and liquidation triggered a sharp sell‑off on Thursday and Friday, sending prices as low as $4,832.63 before closing the week around $4,893.20. According to Reuters, investors had rushed into gold and silver early in the week amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but the new record highs prompted “a dramatic sell‑off” as funds took profits. Despite the late‑week slump, gold still finished the month up more than 24 percent and remains supported by expectations that central banks will eventually pivot to rate cuts.
Silver was even more volatile. It opened the week near $105.03/oz, surged to a record $121.64/oz on Thursday but then collapsed to a session low near $73.86/oz on Friday before settling around $85.23. The extreme moves reflected speculative positioning and thin liquidity. As a result, the gold/silver ratio surged from about 48.3 at the start of the week to 57.4 by Friday, indicating gold outperformed as silver bore the brunt of profit‑taking. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded modestly: TradingEconomics reported the DXY slipped toward 97 during the week and ended Friday near 97, easing from the prior week’s highs. A firmer dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields added to the late‑week pressure on metals.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar index fell to around 96.98 on Jan 26 but steadied near 97 as the week ended. The move reflects some consolidation after the prior week’s rally and leaves the index range‑bound ahead of the February data deluge.
- Gold/Silver Ratio: The ratio surged from ≈48.3 at Monday’s open to ≈57.4 at Friday’s close, a gain of about 9 points, as silver’s plunge outpaced gold’s decline. The jump signals relative strength in gold compared with silver.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 5,073.07 | 105.03 |
| High | 5,560.37 | 121.64 |
| Low | 4,832.63 | 73.86 |
| Close | 4,893.20 | 85.23 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
