Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 177

Reports of Note Due This Week

Investors will be watching inflation numbers with the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index being released Tuesday and Wednesday. Also being released will be the Empire State Manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilization, Fed Beige Book, U.S. retail sales Philly Fed, business inventories, housing starts, building permits and consumer sentiment.

• Monday, July 14 – None scheduled
• Tuesday July 15 – 8:30 A.M. Consumer Price Index (CPI), Empire State manufacturing survey.
• Wednesday July 16 – 8:30 A.M. Producer Price Index (PPI), 9:15 A.M. Industrial Production, Capacity utilization. Fed Beige Book.
• Thursday July 17 –.  8:30 A.M. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 233,000 versus last weeks 227,000, U.S. Retail sales, Import price index, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, 10:00 A.M. Business inventories, Home builder confidence index .
• Friday July 18 – 8:30 A.M. Housing starts, building permits. 10:00 Consumer sentiment (prelim).

Geopolitics

Last week, global trade tensions escalated as President Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs, including a 35% levy on Canadian imports set to take effect August 1. This move, coupled with earlier duties on steel and aluminum, triggered a drop in the Canadian dollar and raised fears of retaliation. Simultaneously, the U.S. announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, while warning 14 countries-including Japan, South Korea, and Canada-of potential 15–25% blanket tariffs if trade deals aren’t renegotiated. A 50% tariff on copper further rattled markets, sending prices to their highest level since 1968. In response, Canadian and Chinese exporters rushed to accelerate shipments, with China reporting a 5.8% rise in June exports. These aggressive policy shifts disrupted supply chains, shook investor confidence, and injected fresh uncertainty into global markets-putting Canada and other major trade partners directly in the crosshairs.

Russia launched a record 728 Shahed and decoy drones, along with 13 missiles, in a sweeping aerial assault across Ukraine, striking 11 regions including key logistical hubs in the west. Lutsk, near the Polish and Belarusian borders, was hardest hit due to its strategic airfields used for receiving and redistributing foreign military aid. Russia claims to have targeted and hit Ukrainian air bases. The attack is part of a growing campaign to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses and disrupt supply lines as Russian forces press along the 620-mile front. U.S. President Trump, expressing frustration with Putin’s intransigence on ceasefire terms, has signaled renewed military aid to Kyiv after a brief pause in weapons deliveries. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy urged stronger sanctions on Russian oil to pressure Moscow financially.

Hamas announced plans to release 10 hostages as part of efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement with Israel, amid continued indirect negotiations. The move coincides with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meetings in Washington with President Trump, where discussions centered on hostage recovery and long-term outcomes of Israel’s conflict with Iran. Trump expressed optimism about a Gaza truce, suggesting a deal could materialize within days, though no timeline is confirmed. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment while announcing sanctions against UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese, citing her calls for ICC action against U.S. and Israeli officials. The potential ceasefire would follow a March truce that freed 33 hostages and paused fighting for two months. Since October 2023, over 57,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis have died, according to local reports.