Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 176

Reports of Note Due This Week

After a 90 day pause on Trumps “Liberation Day “tariffs, the deadline comes up on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released, consumer credit levels and initial jobless claims.

• Monday, July 7 – none scheduled
• Tuesday July 8 – 6:00 A.M. NFIB optimism index, 3:00 P.M. Consumer credit.
• Wednesday July 9 – 10:00 A.M. Wholesale inventories, 2:00 P.M. minutes of the Fed’s May FOMC meeting.
• Thursday July 10 – 8:30 A.M. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 235,000 versus last weeks 233,000.
• Friday July 11 – 2:00 P.M. monthly U.S. federal budget.

Geopolitics

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington for talks with President Trump as efforts intensify to secure a Gaza ceasefire. Trump has backed a proposed 60-day truce, with Hamas responding positively and offering to release hostages in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal. However, Netanyahu continues to demand Hamas’s full disarmament and exile-conditions the group rejects. While Israeli negotiators engage in indirect talks in Qatar, violence in Gaza continues, with at least 80 reported dead over the weekend. The conflict, now in its 21st month, has killed over 56,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis since October 2023. Meanwhile, Israel expanded its regional campaign, striking Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen under “Operation Black Flag,” citing threats tied to Iranian arms transfers. The developments highlight ongoing instability in the Middle East, raising geopolitical risks that could affect energy markets and support increased investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12-day war with Israel, attending a high-security Ashoura ceremony in Tehran. His prior absence had fueled speculation he was in seclusion amid escalating conflict. The appearance follows U.S. airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and rising tensions between Tehran and Washington. Khamenei previously claimed Iran “slapped” the U.S. by striking a military base in Qatar, though Iran has since confirmed serious nuclear site damage and over 900 casualties. In response, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about unmonitored uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, Iran launched over 550 missiles at Israel during the conflict, causing limited casualties. With internet disruptions also reported, Iran’s internal stability and global isolation may deepen. These developments could weigh on regional security and oil supply routes—factors that often drive increased demand for precious metals as geopolitical hedges.

Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Kyiv since the war began, deploying over 500 drones and 11 missiles, injuring at least 23 people and damaging infrastructure. The escalation came hours after a failed phone call between President Trump and President Putin, in which Trump expressed frustration over stalled ceasefire efforts. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy confirmed discussions with Trump about enhancing air defense cooperation and joint defense production, particularly involving drones. Meanwhile, Trump paused certain U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine, citing concerns over domestic stockpiles, a move that drew criticism amid intensified Russian strikes. A prisoner exchange was conducted, but Moscow maintains its demand for Ukraine to cede territory and abandon NATO ambitions. The Kremlin insists it seeks a political solution but offers no concessions. With the war grinding on and U.S. support wavering, uncertainty around Ukraine’s defense capabilities and regional stability may increase, reinforcing safe-haven demand in global markets.