Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 145

Reports of Note Due This Week

Markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. PCE inflation reading is out on Wednesday as well as Fed minutes from November. Consumer confidence and housing market data also being released.

• Monday, Nov 25 – none scheduled.
• Tuesday Nov 26 – 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index. 10:00 A.M. Consumer confidence (Nov.) and new home sales (Oct.). 2:00 P.M.- FOMC minutes of Fed’s November meeting.
• Wednesday Nov 27 – 8:30 A.M.  the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected to be up to 215,000 versus last weeks 213,000. Also, Durable goods orders, Advanced U.S. trade balance, Advanced retail and wholesale inventories and GDP (first revision). 9:45 A.M. Chicago Business Barometer (PMI). 10:00 A.M. Personal Income, PCE Index and Pending home sales.
• Thursday Nov 28 – None scheduled, Thanksgiving Holiday.
• Friday Nov 29 – none scheduled.

Geopolitics

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally lowered the conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons, reacting to Ukraine’s strikes within Russian territory using American missiles. This update to Russia’s nuclear policy now allows for a nuclear response if Russia or its allies face aggression from a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state. This significant shift in nuclear doctrine was justified by the Kremlin as a necessary update given the current geopolitical tensions, especially following recent Ukrainian attacks that utilized U.S.-supplied weapons.

U.S. allies are raising alarms about potential hybrid warfare following the severance of two key undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea, which they suspect are acts of sabotage amidst heightened tensions with Russia. This incident has led to increased monitoring and precautionary measures among NATO members. The situation underscores the broader concerns about security and the ongoing hybrid activities by state actors aimed at disrupting stability in Europe, as the geopolitical conflict continues to evolve.

A volcano near Reykjavik, Iceland erupted again late Wednesday, marking the seventh eruption in the area within a year. This recent eruption was smaller than previous ones, creating a nearly two-mile long fissure but causing no significant disruptions to air travel or infrastructure. Despite the lack of prior seismic warnings, authorities were monitoring the situation due to ongoing volcanic activity in the region. The eruption led to temporary closures, including the Blue Lagoon spa, and precautionary evacuations in the nearby town of Grindavík.

Australia is moving to enact one of the strictest social media regulations globally, proposing a law to prohibit children under 16 from using social media without exceptions for parental consent. The bill, supported by the government and potentially the opposition, aims to shield youth from online harms linked to mental and physical health issues. The law would impose heavy fines on platforms that fail to enforce age verification, which might include biometric checks or government IDs. This follows global concerns about the impact of social media on children’s wellbeing.