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Issue 93 – The week of November 27th, 2023

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

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SupportResistance
1980.002020.00
1955.002040.00
1935.002062.00
1913.002100.00
Gold
SupportResistance
23.3024.54
22.5525.42
21.9225.82
20.8526.96
Silver

Reports of Note due out this week:

Markets this week return to a full schedule following a shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. New home sales, Consumer confidence, GDP. The Fed Beige Book, The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and ISM manufacturing to mention a few.

  • Monday sees the release of New Home Sales at10:00 AM.
  • Tuesday at 9:00 AM sees the release of the S&P Case-Shiller home price index followed at 10:00 PM by Consumer Confidence for November..
  • On Wednesday, we start off with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM and Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods. Then at 2:00 PM the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released.
  • Thursday sees the weekly release of the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 25. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for October will be released also at 8:30 AM. The PCE reading comes after another inflation indicator-the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected at 3.2% for October, a sharp drop from the 3.7% rate from September. Then at 10:00 we see the release of Pending Home Sales for October.
  • Friday sees the ISM manufacturing (November) and Construction spending for October.

Geopolitics

Israel and Hamas have reached a deal to release hostages, including 50 women and children held in Gaza, amid ongoing conflict. The breakthrough agreement includes a four-day pause in fighting, delivery of aid trucks, and the release of 150 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails. Qatar, alongside the US and Egypt, brokered the deal. Israel approved it, while Hamas confirmed it. The agreement involves stopping Israeli drone flights over Gaza and allowing more fuel and humanitarian aid trucks into the region. The deal aims to free hostages held since the Oct. 7 attack, which killed over 1,200 people. US President Biden was directly involved in negotiations. The war with Hamas is ongoing despite the deal, with concerns over Israeli prisoners held by Palestinians.

Hospitals in northern China are overwhelmed with respiratory illnesses, especially among children, prompting concerns and a surge in demand for medical care. Chinese health authorities attribute the rise to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, citing cases of mycoplasma pneumonia. Critics urge transparency amid past controversies over Covid-19 reporting. Though not deemed a global threat, the situation has caused hospital overcrowding, exacerbated by public panic and winter weather conditions. Health officials advise caution and recommend preventive measures like vaccinations and good hygiene. Despite challenges, experts believe the situation can be managed with existing protocols and heightened vigilance.

In what officials called Russia’s largest drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, five people were wounded as explosions rocked the city at sunrise. Air raid warnings lasted six hours as drones targeted different districts. Despite downing 71 out of 75 drones, the attack injured five people and damaged buildings, including a children’s nursery. President Zelenskyy condemned the attack, noting its timing coincided with Ukraine’s remembrance of the Holodomor famine. Ukraine sees parallels between Holodomor and Russia’s invasion. While the attack’s specific target remains unclear, Ukraine warns of potential strikes on its energy system, leaving nearly 200 buildings without power. The assault raises concerns about Russia’s intentions as winter approaches.

The Call

Trading volumes will be back to normal this week after the holiday. We would expect Gold to range trade between 1970.00 and 2050.00 this week. Gold is heading into overbought territory and a small pullback in prices would not be negative in the long run. The month of December is typically a positive month for precious metals prices, and we expect to see volatility continue. Ultimately, we see a move higher into year end towards 2100.00 with the possibility of even higher highs.

Last Week in Review

Gold opened Sunday evening at 1980.20 spot and then traded a little higher to 1987.20 before a small selloff into Monday lunchtime for a weekly low of 1966.70.  Gold then began to rally reaching 2009.30 on Tuesday morning which turned out to be the weekly high. The rest of the week gold traded in a narrow range on very low volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Gold closed out the week at 2003.00 on Friday afternoon.

Silver opened at 23.77 on Sunday evening and like Gold drifted higher before declining to 23.28 into Monday morning making the weekly low. Silver then rallied the rest of the week hitting its high and closing a penny from the high on Friday afternoon of 24.38.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished weaker for  the week  at 103.40.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio closed mildly stronger for the week at 82.3 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
GoldSilver
Open1980.2023.77
High2009.3024.38
Low1966.7023.28
Close2003.0024.37
Last Week’s Gold and Silver Ranges

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The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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