Issue 8 – The week of April 4th, 2022

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

Reports of Note due out this week:

Monday

• US factory orders. Increased factory orders are a sign that inflationary pressures will continue to be prevalent a bullish sign for precious metals
• CAD business outlook survey. A pessimistic view would be bearish on the C$ and bullish for precious metals

Tuesday

• API weekly crude oil stocks. Drops indicative of further supply chain disruptions. Bullish for both energies and precious metals.

Wednesday

• CAD Ivey PMI. A negative survey bearish for C$ and bullish for precious metals.
• US FOMC meeting minutes release. A more in-depth guide to what was discussed at the most recent meeting.

Thursday

• US EIA natural gas storage change. Drops can be seen as positive for energy and precious metals prices. Be it due to supply chain issues or US shipments being sent to Europe to offset previous Russian supply.
• US consumer credit change. A low number is perceived to be negative for the US$ which would be positive for precious metals.

Friday

• CAD unemployment rate & net change of employment. The lower the rate and higher the change number is bullish for the C$ and bearish for precious metals.
• US CFTC net gold positions. An overall view of market sentiment to future price direction.

Geopolitics

Gold sold off at the end of last week reacting to a much better than anticipated employment report from the US. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% and 431,000 were added to payrolls, the 15^th month in a row of job gains. Equity markets reacted positively to sustained signs of economic recovery.

Global supply chains continue to be strained by not just the continuing war in Ukraine but also by the continuation of the Shanghai Covid-19 lockdown. Business activity remains at a standstill in both the manufacturing and financial sectors.

Prices for many food commodities such as grains and pork are experiencing large rises with some previous exporting nations deciding to keep all products for their domestic markets. There is anecdotal evidence that shortages are spreading to other facets of products consumed every day, such mundane items as kitty litter are now becoming hard to find. Things will only get worse going forward.

The Call

Given the strength of the US employment, this week’s CAD employment report could very well also come in better than expected. This would be bullish for the C$ and bearish for gold in C$ terms. Even though gold had again last month overall the last three weeks traded to the downside. The trend for the moment is still a slow descent downwards.

Last Week in Review

Precious metals were trying hard to make some meagre gains but any hope for that was dashed when the US employment numbers were reported.

The war in Ukraine continues to get uglier and uglier and Russian forces seem to be re-evaluating their objectives to only securing the Donbas region and Crimea. As they pull back their policy of scorched earth will be truly heartbreaking.

	Gold	Silver
Open	1958	25.55
High	1959	25.60
Low	1890	23.98
Close	1926	24.65