Issue 28 – The week of August 22th, 2022

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

Reports of Note due out this week:

Monday

• No reports of note

Tuesday

• USA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulphur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of the total petroleum industry. Stocks being down is good for precious metals.

Wednesday

• USA Durable Goods. The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. A high reading is bullish for the USD.

Thursday

• USA Gross Domestic Product. The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in each period. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better-than-expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

• USA Jackson Hole Symposium. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, since 1978, and held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, since 1981. It is a forum for central bankers, policymakers and academics to come together to focus on a topic.

Friday

• The second day of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets will look for sentiment statements.
  
  
• USA CFTC Net Gold Positions. The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides information on the size and the direction of the positions taken, across all maturities, with participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. Forex trades focus on “non-commercial” or speculative positions, to determine whether a trend remains healthy or not, and market sentiment towards a certain asset.

Geopolitics

Commodity prices have come off, as food shipments from Ukraine resume once again by sea. Markets expect another interest rate hike announcement from the US Fed at their September meeting. Market participants are split on what to expect from the Fed with a slight majority expecting a 50 basis points hike and a minority looking for 75 basis points.

The war in Ukraine is spilling over into Russia. This isn’t good. On the weekend one of Putin’s key advisers narrowly escaped an assassination attempt by changing cars at the last moment, as the car his daughter was driving was blown up while returning from a speaking engagement. Almost certainly there will be increased retaliatory attacks from Russian forces this week.

The Call

The big moment for precious metals this week is going to be the US Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium. Given this event and the recent strength of the US dollar gold is probably going to have a difficult time making any gains this week. Any break of 1709 portends moving lower. Keep your powder dry and wait for the buy-the-dip moment.

Last Week in Review

• Precious metals took quite the hit last week as the commodity complex as a whole shed prices as markets look for a 50-basis point, or half percent interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve from their September decision
• After being banned by London Bullion Market Association {LBMA} Russia is looking into establishing its own international standard for precious metals

	Gold	Silver
Open	1799	20.75
High	1801	20.86
Low	1744	18.95
Close	1745	18.98