Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 232
Issue 232 – The Week of September 14, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,330 | 4,348 |
| 4,292 | 4,376 |
| 4,269 | 4,420 |
| 4,200 | 4,490 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 63.00 | 65.00 |
| 61.00 | 66.00 |
| 58.00 | 68.00 |
| 54.00 | 70.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is FOMC week – the most anticipated Fed decision since Warsh took the chair. With September hike probability sitting at 90% following last week’s hot PPI and CPI, a 25bp increase to 3.75-4.00% is the near-certain outcome. What is genuinely uncertain is the dot plot and the press conference. Will Warsh submit his own projection for the first time – having abstained at the June meeting – and if so, how many hikes does he pencil in for 2026? A one-and-done signal could trigger a powerful relief rally for metals as the market rereads gold’s three-week losing streak as over-discounted. A signal of further hikes to come would push gold toward and potentially below the $4,200 structural floor. Note that the FOMC blackout period ends Thursday September 17, meaning the first post-decision Fed communication could arrive as soon as Friday.
- Monday, September 14
No tier-1 data releases. - Tuesday, September 15
8:30 AM ET: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September) Prior: strong
ADP Weekly Employment Tracker (September) FOMC Meeting Day 1 begins | Earnings: General Mills, Lennar - Wednesday, September 16
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales (August) Prior: −0.2%
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Rate Decision Consensus: +25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% range
2:00 PM ET: Summary of Economic Projections (Dot Plot) – Watch whether Warsh submits his own projection for the first time; the number of 2026 hikes in the median dot is the market-moving variable
2:30 PM ET: Warsh Press Conference Earnings: General Mills, FedEx - Thursday, September 17
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims Prior: ~200K
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September) Prior: strong positive
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Building Permits (August) FOMC blackout ends Thursday – Fed speakers possible from Friday onward - Friday, September 18
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (August) Prior: +0.3% Post-blackout: Fed speakers may begin making public appearances; any post-decision commentary will be closely parsed for the pace of future hikes | Earnings: FedEx detailed breakdown
Geopolitics
Houthi rebels completed a rapid takeover of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, capturing the port city of Mocha and the strategically vital island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Simultaneously, drone strikes originating from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its East-West oil pipeline – a critical alternative export route since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. Global oil prices moved back above $100/barrel. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to take military action against the Houthis; Trump declined strikes but agreed to share targeting intelligence. Over 46,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since fighting escalated.
The UK formally banned imports and key services from Israeli West Bank settlements, with France and Canada announcing similar measures. Foreign Secretary Miliband accused “settler terrorists” of ethnic cleansing and said the UK now considers Israel’s broader occupation of the West Bank illegal. Israel responded by ordering the closure of the British consulate in Jerusalem, expelling UK representatives from a Gaza ceasefire monitoring center, and barring a dozen British lawmakers from entry. The U.S. ambassador warned of potential American retaliation. Denmark, Finland, Poland, and several other European nations pledged further coordinated action.
BRICS leaders meeting in New Delhi unanimously adopted a declaration expressing “deep concern” over the Middle East war and calling for maximum restraint. The summit brought Xi Jinping to India for the first time in seven years, with bilateral talks between Xi and Modi marking a cautious rebuilding of ties strained since a deadly 2020 Himalayan border clash. Xi called on BRICS to act as a peacemaker. The bloc – which includes both Iran and the UAE – also voiced concern over rising unilateral tariff measures affecting global trade.
With U.S. diesel prices hitting a record $6/gallon, Trump publicly called on Zelenskyy to halt Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and fuel infrastructure, warning the attacks were causing a global shortage. The IEA reported that combined Gulf and Russian diesel exports – which before the war accounted for nearly 45% of global seaborne trade – had been severely disrupted. Kyiv has argued the strikes deprive Moscow of fuel revenue that funds its war. Russia simultaneously escalated its own drone campaign on Ukrainian cities, ports, and border crossings.
The Call
Gold and silver are under pressure again and the selling is picking up. Gold’s brief recovery over the weekend didn’t hold – it dropped as low as $4,317/oz before bouncing to around $4,332/oz, right at an important long term support level where buyers have historically stepped in. Holding above $4,300/oz gives buyers a chance to stabilize things, and getting back above $4,350/oz would be encouraging, but until gold clears $4,400/oz the market still looks weak. Silver is in worse shape, falling to $62.80/oz and only recovering to around $63.40/oz. Last week’s sharp move lower has left sellers firmly in control, and $64.30/oz is the key level silver needs to reclaim before the picture starts to improve.
The Middle East situation isn’t helping metals the way you might expect. Normally rising geopolitical tension drives investors toward gold and silver as safe havens, but right now a different force is winning – oil near $108 a barrel is stoking inflation fears, the US 10-year government bond yield is pushing toward 5%, and the dollar remains strong. All of that raises the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which makes gold and silver less attractive to investors. Large institutional investors were still holding about 135,000 contracts betting gold would go higher as of last Tuesday, only slightly reduced from the week before -meaning there is still plenty of bullish positioning that could unwind and add more selling pressure if prices keep falling. The Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision Wednesday. Gold needs $4,350/oz back. Silver needs $64.30/oz.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Tuesday September 8 at $4,420 spot and pushed modestly higher to the weekly high of $4,442.98 before selling pressure built steadily through Wednesday and Thursday as August PPI smashed expectations – energy-driven wholesale prices surged and the 10-year Treasury yield spiked intraday, with silver collapsing 5.6% on Thursday alone as its industrial demand profile made it the primary casualty – sending gold to the weekly low of $4,292.11 by early Friday before August CPI at +0.4% MoM and +3.4% YoY with core at +0.3% (one tenth above consensus) paradoxically triggered a “sell the news” relief rally as September hike odds hit 90%, with gold recovering to close Friday at $4,348.39. For the week gold was lower by $72 and finished near the middle of our range, its third consecutive weekly decline.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $100.00, firmed sharply through Thursday’s PPI shock as hike odds surged to 86%, then pulled back Friday, closing the week near $99.00 – a net weekly decline of approximately 1.00 point.
- The Gold/Silver ratio widened from 66.9 to approximately 67.5 on the week, gaining 0.6 points as silver’s Thursday collapse of 5.6% – from $67.31 to a $63.50 Friday morning low before recovering to settle at $64.39
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,420.00 | 66.05 |
| High | 4,442.98 | 68.50 |
| Low | 4,292.11 | 63.50 |
| Close | 4,348.39 | 64.39 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
