Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 223
Issue 223 – The Week of June 29, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,000 | 4,100 |
| 3,975 | 4,126 |
| 3,900 | 4,200 |
| 3,816 | 4,280 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 57.00 | 59.00 |
| 53.00 | 61.00 |
| 50.00 | 63.00 |
| 45.00 | 66.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is another holiday-shortened week – U.S. markets close Friday July 3 for Independence Day – with the June Nonfarm Payrolls report pulled forward to Thursday to avoid the holiday. NFP is the only data point capable of materially shifting the rate-hike narrative this week, arriving as markets have aggressively repriced from one hike (the FOMC’s June 17 dot plot) to three hikes in 2026, with the first now seen at 62% probability in September. Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing and ADP land as the warm-up, and Warsh is scheduled to speak this week in his first major post-FOMC public appearance. Iran peace talks resuming in Doha Monday – with both sides having suspended weekend attacks – are the geopolitical wildcard that runs beneath every session.
- Monday, June 29
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Final (June) | Prior Flash: 55.3 | 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) – note: July 1 is the technical first-business-day release, some sources place this Monday | Kevin Warsh public appearance – first major post-FOMC speech; Kiplinger flags this as the week’s notable Fed event | Iran-Doha peace talks resume - Tuesday, June 30
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) | Prior: 86.0 |
10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (May) | Prior: 6.946M - Wednesday, July 1
8:30 AM ET: Challenger Job Cuts (June)
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Change (June) | Prior: +63K | Forecast: ~+80K | 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) | Prior: 55.3 | Prices Paid sub-index prior: 84.6 - Thursday, July 2
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (June) | Prior: +172K | Forecast: ~+170K (Gotrade) / +100K (Barclays, below consensus)
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (June) | Prior: 4.3%
8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (June) | Prior: +0.3% MoM
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (May) | Note: this is the last live session before Friday’s holiday closure - Friday, July 3
– U.S. Markets Closed – Independence Day Holiday
Geopolitics
Fresh clashes over control of the Strait of Hormuz threatened to unravel the peace framework, with Iran attacking ships and U.S. forces striking Iranian targets after Tehran rejected a new UN-backed transit route as a challenge to its sovereignty. Trump announced new talks in Doha, though Iranian officials denied any formal negotiations were scheduled. Technical implementation teams are working to resolve disputes over Hormuz control and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Iran’s president called the interim deal “a great victory,” citing $6 billion in assets to be released by Qatar.
Putin publicly acknowledged for the first time that Ukraine’s sustained drone campaign has created fuel shortages across Russia, including in occupied Crimea, which declared a state of emergency. Speaking at a United Russia party congress, Putin said a task force was working to address the issue and a diesel export ban was under consideration. Ukraine launched what appeared to be one of its largest drone attacks of the war – 660 drones across 12 Russian regions – as part of a declared “40-day influence operation” aimed at pressuring Moscow to negotiate.
Kim Jong Un unveiled the Choe Hyon, a 5,000-ton destroyer capable of carrying nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles, declaring a “new era” of North Korean naval power. Kim vowed to commission at least two warships annually and launch 10,000-ton strategic vessels in coming years. Analysts say the buildup reflects Kim’s growing confidence, bolstered by economic recovery, an expanding nuclear arsenal, and technology transfers from Russia in exchange for deploying troops to Ukraine. Operational capability and crew training remain significant challenges for Pyongyang’s navy.
The Call
Gold and silver are under pressure again – both metals are struggling.
Gold slipped back below an important price level of $4043/oz after last week’s recovery failed to hold. The overall trend still looks weak, and buyers haven’t shown enough confidence to take control of the market. The key number to watch right now is $4000/oz – holding above that matters. Getting back above $4100/oz would help stabilize things, but for now gold still feels like it wants to move lower.
Silver is in even worse shape. The bounce it made last week couldn’t hold, and it’s now fallen back below $58.06/oz. Like gold, the bigger picture still points downward. Until silver can get back above $59.50/oz, any upward moves are likely to be short-lived as sellers keep stepping in to push it back down. The Iran deal has removed a lot of the fear from the market. When global tensions ease, investors tend to feel less need to hold safe haven assets like gold and silver. On top of that, oil prices are still falling, which keeps inflation worries low – and gold and silver tend to do best when people are worried about inflation. With both of those tailwinds gone, neither metal can find much momentum.
Gold needs to get above 4100. Silver needs 5900. Until then the path of least resistance is still downward.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,155 spot and then briefly traded higher Monday morning on the U.S.-Iran 60-day peace roadmap signed in Switzerland sending oil 2% lower, making the weekly high of $4,197, before Warsh’s hawkish Tuesday speech drove the dollar back through 100 and his continued commitment to “delivering price stability” pushed the DXY to a 13-month high of $101.53 on Wednesday, crushing gold to a weekly low near $3,975 Thursday morning before Thursday’s in-line May PCE print of 4.1% trimmed rate-hike expectations modestly and triggered a two-session recovery, closing the week Friday at $4,044. For the week gold was lower by $111 and finished near the middle of our range, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $101.30, fell to approximately $99.80 Monday on the Iran peace roadmap before Warsh’s Tuesday remarks drove it back through 100, peaking at a 13-month high of $101.53 on Wednesday, then retreating to close the week near $100.80
- The Gold/Silver ratio widened sharply from 63.2 to approximately 69.3 on the week, gaining 6.1 points in one of the largest single-week ratio expansions of the year, as silver collapsed from $66.05 to a Friday close of $58.34 – a loss of more than 11% – reflecting amplified pressure from markets repricing three Fed rate hikes for 2026, the most aggressive hawkish shift since 2022.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,155 | 66.05 |
| High | 4,197 | 67.00 |
| Low | 3,975 | 58.00 |
| Close | 4,044 | 58.34 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
