Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 218
Issue 218 – The Week of May 25, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,480.00 | 4,530.00 |
| 4,376.00 | 4,580.00 |
| 4,224.00 | 4,640.00 |
| 4,126.00 | 4,724.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 71.00 | 73.00 |
| 68.00 | 75.00 |
| 63.00 | 77.00 |
| 60.00 | 80.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is a shortened four-day trading week with U.S. markets closed Monday for Memorial Day and U.K. markets closed for Spring Bank Holiday, compressing the full week’s price discovery into Tuesday through Friday. Thursday is the standout session – the most data-dense morning of the quarter – with Core PCE for April, the Q1 GDP second estimate, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Jobless Claims all printing simultaneously at 8:30 AM ET. Core PCE running at 3.2% YoY in March makes Thursday’s April print the week’s single most consequential data point for metals, arriving just three weeks before the June 16–17 FOMC – the first meeting under Warsh and the first with a new dot plot since March.
- Monday, May 25:
U.S. Markets Closed – Memorial Day | U.K. Markets Closed – Spring Bank Holiday - Tuesday, May 26
–10:00 AM ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May) | Prior: 86.0
–10:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index (March)
–10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May) - Wednesday, May 27:
–7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
–2:00 PM ET: FOMC Meeting Minutes (April 28-29 meeting) – the first minutes under the new Warsh regime; markets will parse for any language shift from Powell’s final meeting toward a more hawkish posture | API Crude Oil Inventories - Thursday, May 28:
–8:30 AM ET: GDP Q1 2026 – Second Estimate | Prior (Advance): +2.0%
–8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (April) | Prior: +3.2% YoY
–8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Spending (April)
–8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims | Prior: 200K
-8:30 AM ET: Advance Durable Goods Orders (April)
–10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (April) | EIA Crude Oil Inventories - Friday, May 29:
–9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI (May)
–10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May) | Wholesale Inventories
Geopolitics
Days after hosting Trump, Xi Jinping welcomed Putin to Beijing, declaring China-Russia relations at a “historic high.” The two leaders signed nearly two dozen agreements spanning trade, energy, and technology, and agreed to extend their Treaty of Friendship. They jointly criticized Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense project and the lapsed New START treaty. Key economic outcomes included a preliminary agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China. Meanwhile, confirmed U.S.-China deals from the Trump summit included China purchasing 200 Boeing aircraft and restoring U.S. beef and poultry imports, though the UN noted no major breakthroughs were achieved.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed offering Ukraine “associate membership” in the EU, allowing participation in meetings without voting rights, as a step toward full accession. The proposal comes as U.S.-mediated peace talks with Russia remain stalled and European nations debate launching their own parallel negotiating track. Merz also called for accelerating formal membership talks. Hungary had previously blocked negotiations, but its new post-Orbán government may lift that veto. Names floated as possible EU mediators with Russia include former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former ECB chief Mario Draghi.
Iran acknowledged progress in negotiations but cautioned a deal was not imminent, even as Secretary of State Rubio said an agreement could be finalized “that day.” A framework under discussion would give both sides 60 days to finalize a full peace deal, committing Iran to abandoning nuclear weapons development and surrendering enriched uranium, while the U.S. would gradually lift its naval blockade and offer economic relief. Iran’s top negotiators traveled to Doha as Qatar took a more active mediation role alongside Pakistan. Oil prices fell over $5 on deal optimism, with U.S. gas averaging $4.51/gallon. Trump separately called on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and others to join the Abraham Accords.
The Call
Gold looks better short term now. Market finally responded the way you’d expect with oil backing off hard and the dollar softer on all the Iran headlines. If this Iran thing holds together and Hormuz calms down, that probably takes some heat out of the inflation trade. Still, gold bounced pretty well considering oil got hit. That tells you buyers are still underneath it. Weekly chart is trying to stabilize back into the upper part of the range after defending the 4530-4550 area again. Near term, above 4560 keeps the tone better and opens a shot back toward 4615 and 4680. Above 4700 starts looking stronger again. Below 4539 probably turns it soft quickly. Feels a lot better than last week though.
Silver also looks better short term. Market got back into the weekly structure after defending the mid-76 area and now it’s pushing toward the upper end of the recent range again. If this Iran thing calms oil and eases rates a bit, silver probably likes that. 7847 to 7919 still matters overhead. Above 8000 probably brings buyers back in again. As long as it stays above the 7670 area the tone looks firm. Both metals look a lot healthier here than they did a week ago.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,724 spot and then traded lower all week as Warsh’s hawkish swearing-in remarks on Friday May 15 set the tone — the new Fed Chair explicitly called for removing the easing bias and signaled rate hikes were on the table — driving the 10-year Treasury yield to a one-year high near 4.59% and keeping relentless upward pressure on real yields throughout the week, with gold making the weekly high of approximately $4,662 on Monday before fading steadily, briefly testing $4,480 on Thursday after the hawkish FOMC minutes, and closing Friday near $4,511 in thin, range-bound trade. For the week gold was lower by approximately $213 and finished near the lower end of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $96.68, climbed steadily on Warsh’s hawkish posture and the FOMC minutes released Wednesday May 21, and settled the week near $99.32 – a gain of approximately 2.64 points, its largest weekly advance since the initial Iran war surge in late February.
- The Gold/Silver ratio widened from 58.8 to approximately 62.0 on the week, gaining 3.2 points as silver retreated more sharply than gold in response to the hawkish policy pivot, with silver closing the week near $72.75 after failing to hold the $80 level.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,724 | 80.50 |
| High | 4,662 | 80.50 |
| Low | 4,480 | 70.75 |
| Close | 4,511 | 72.75 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
