Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 217
Issue 217- The Week of May 11th, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,640 | 4,724 |
| 4,576 | 4,791 |
| 4,376 | 4,857 |
| 4,224 | 4,960 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 78.00 | 81.00 |
| 74.00 | 83.00 |
| 70.00 | 85.00 |
| 65.00 | 88.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is one of the most consequential weeks of the second quarter, anchored by the April CPI on Tuesday – the single most important inflation print of the month with headline expected to push above 3.7% YoY on surging gasoline prices – and the PPI on Wednesday to validate whether producer-level inflation is broadening. Both reports land against the backdrop of Powell’s term expiring Friday May 15 and the full Senate expected to vote on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation this week, making this the first real data test for the incoming Fed Chair before he even sits in the seat. The Trump-Xi summit Thursday and Friday is the most underappreciated wild card on the calendar for metals, with Beijing’s posture on the Iran conflict and tariffs potentially reshaping the macro regime.
- Monday:
No reports of note - Tuesday:
8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (April) | Forecast: +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY
8:30 AM ET: Core CPI (April) | Forecast: +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY
Senate Floor Vote: Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation (date not formally announced but expected this week ahead of May 15 term expiry) - Wednesday:
8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (April) | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid rose to 84.6 in April – the highest since December 2022 – signaling upside risk to this print - Thursday:
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales (April) | 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims | Prior: 200K | Trump-Xi Summit begins (Day 1) – AI guardrails and Middle East posture on the agenda - Friday:
10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (May)
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair expires – Kevin Warsh assumes role as Fed Chair
Trump-Xi Summit (Day 2)
Geopolitics
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remained deadlocked as Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable,” while Tehran called its offer “reasonable and generous.” Key sticking points include the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and the status of frozen Iranian assets. Both Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled the conflict is not over. Brent crude held above $103/barrel. Analysts say Iran could withstand the naval blockade for months, limiting its coercive effect.
Russia held a notably subdued Victory Day parade in Moscow, with no tanks or missile systems on display amid a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire that Ukraine agreed to honor in exchange for 1,000 POWs. North Korean troops marched in Red Square for the first time, underscoring the deepening Moscow-Pyongyang alliance. Putin vowed to fight on in Ukraine. Analysts noted the scaled-back parade reflects both hardware shortages from the Ukraine war and genuine concern about Ukrainian drone capabilities, with one researcher suggesting Khamenei’s killing had visibly shifted Putin’s sense of personal vulnerability.
Nigel Farage’s hard-right Reform UK party achieved sweeping gains in English local elections, wiping Labour out of traditional working-class strongholds and becoming the second-largest party in Wales. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced calls to resign from within his own party but vowed to continue. Labour also lost control of Wales for the first time in its history. The Conservatives continued hemorrhaging support to Reform, while the Greens made modest gains in urban areas. Analysts suggest Britain’s postwar two-party system may be effectively over.
Ahead of Trump’s May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping, Beijing issued unusually direct language linking U.S. adherence to the “One China principle” to the stability of the entire bilateral relationship. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi separately met with U.S. senators and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, signaling Beijing’s intent to position itself as a key diplomatic player on both Taiwan and the Strait of Hormuz. A visiting U.S. senator hinted a Boeing aircraft purchase could be one outcome of the summit.
France repositioned its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle into the Red Sea in preparation for a potential French-British mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment is distinct from U.S. military operations and forms part of a coalition of over 50 nations that held operational planning sessions in April. French officials stressed the mission would only begin once shipping threats decrease and maritime insurers are sufficiently reassured — conditions not yet met, as war-risk premiums remain four to five times above pre-war levels.
The Call
Gold still looks trapped after that outside week reversal. Weekly chart held 4670 again but rallies into the 4775 area still not doing much. Market had every excuse to explode higher with oil firm and all the Gulf headlines, but dollar and rates are keeping a lid on it. Not acting like a market ready to run yet. Near term, 4655 and 4644 still matter. Lose those and you probably test 4600 again pretty quickly. Above 4715 helps the tone, but really needs back through 4775 and then 4800 before the weekly starts looking constructive again. Feels heavy here.
Silver acting a lot better here. Back over 83 now and pushing into the higher end of the weekly resistance zone. Market keeps rejecting breaks lower and buyers are still showing up on dips. If silver can stay above 8100 the tone stays positive and a push toward the mid-80s opens up again. Under 8000 would weaken things and under 7700 probably turns the whole thing sloppy again. Silver still looks bid.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,618 spot and then traded lower Monday after Trump rejected Iran’s counter-proposal as “totally unacceptable,” pushing to a weekly low near $4,535 before reversing sharply as ceasefire stability held through midweek and Iran signaled a revised response was coming, making the weekly high of $4,724 on Friday after a stronger-than-expected April NFP print of +115K (vs. +62K expected) confirmed the ceasefire remained “in effect” and oil pulled back over 3% on fresh peace optimism. For the week gold was higher by $106 and finished near the higher end of our range, posting its best weekly gain in over a month.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened the week near $97.00 and drifted to close Friday near $96.68, a net decline of approximately 0.32 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed sharply from 61.5 to approximately 58.8 on the week, declining 2.7 points as silver surged more than 7% – from a Wednesday low of $71 to a Friday close above $80.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,618 | 75.16 |
| High | 4,724 | 81.55 |
| Low | 4,535 | 71.00 |
| Close | 4,724 | 80.50 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
