Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 216
Issue 216 – The Week of May 4, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,576 | 4,660 |
| 4,376 | 4,700 |
| 4,224 | 4,791 |
| 4,126 | 4,857 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 73.00 | 76.00 |
| 70.00 | 78.00 |
| 65.00 | 80.00 |
| 61.00 | 83.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
- Monday:
No tier-1 U.S. data releases. - Tuesday:
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (April)
10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (March) - Wednesday:
8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Change (April) - Thursday:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims - Friday:
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (April)
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (April)
10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (May)
10:00 AM ET: UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May)
Geopolitics
The UAE announced it will leave OPEC on May 1, allowing it to set its own production levels independently of the cartel. The decision reflects growing Emirati frustration with the Gulf states’ response to Iranian attacks and a deepening rift with Saudi Arabia over regional security policy, Yemen, Sudan, and relations with Israel. The timing was pointed – the announcement came as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was hosting a Gulf unity summit. Analysts describe the move as part of a broader shift toward a more assertive, independent UAE foreign policy under President Mohammed bin Zayed.
Trump said he was reviewing a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring nuclear talks, expressing skepticism it would meet U.S. terms. Iran’s IRGC warned Trump’s options were narrowing, while an Iranian parliamentary official added that a ceasefire in Lebanon must precede any Hormuz deal. The U.S. military passed the 60-day mark in Iran operations without congressional authorization, and the Senate rejected a war powers resolution for the sixth time by a vote of 47-50.
Ukraine publicly accused Israel of allowing ships carrying grain stolen from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to unload at Haifa port, summoning the Israeli ambassador and threatening sanctions. Israel’s foreign minister disputed the claims, calling it “Twitter diplomacy” and saying evidence had not been formally submitted. Ukraine says the shipments are part of Russia’s shadow fleet network. The dispute strains ties between the two countries at a sensitive time, as Israel wages war alongside the U.S. while trying to maintain workable relations with Moscow.
Despite a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in place since April 17, fighting continued in southern Lebanon, with Israeli airstrikes killing at least 10 people and Hezbollah drones wounding two Israeli soldiers. Civilians displaced by the conflict have begun returning to damaged homes, straining overburdened hospitals. The International Red Cross condemned strikes on its volunteers, reporting two killed and 18 wounded in Lebanon. Lebanon’s war death toll reached 2,618 since March 2.
The Call
Gold around 4580. Weak start, and it’s leaning on that 4580–4550 area you’ve got marked. That’s being tested now. If it slips, there isn’t much until 4520, then 4440. On the upside, same levels still matter, back above 4590 settles it a bit, but you really need 4620+ to change the tone. Until then it feels like pressure, not a base.
Silver 74.40. Came off the mid-75s and isn’t doing much to hold up. Needs back above 75.5-76 to look better. Otherwise it drifts with gold and you start looking back toward the low 70s.
There’s plenty of noise out there, Iran, oil moving, but gold’s not reacting the way you’d expect. Dollar and rates are still doing the driving. Overall, this feels heavy. Inside the range, but starting from the weak side. Unless it can get back above 4620, it looks more like a grind lower than anything else.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,707 spot and then traded lower through midweek – the historic 8-4 FOMC hold on Wednesday and Thursday morning’s Q1 PCE surge to 4.5% (from 2.9% in Q4) reinforced the stagflation ceiling – making the weekly low of approximately $4,500 on Wednesday before Iran’s updated peace proposal sent oil lower and the dollar to a two-month low on Friday, allowing gold to close at $4,618. For the week gold was lower by $89 and finished near the middle of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $98.59 and fell to a two-month low on Friday.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed from 62.4 to approximately 61.5 on the week, declining 0.9 points as silver recovered more aggressively from its Wednesday low of $71.00.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,707 | 75.46 |
| High | 4,730 | 76.00 |
| Low | 4,500 | 71.00 |
| Close | 4,618 | 75.16 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
