Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 214
Issue 214 – The Week of April 20, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,791 | 4,920 |
| 4,660 | 4,960 |
| 4,576 | 5,000 |
| 4,376 | 5,070 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 80.00 | 82.00 |
| 77.00 | 85.00 |
| 73.00 | 87.00 |
| 70.00 | 90.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This week’s calendar is deliberately lighter on hard data — but don’t mistake light for quiet. Tuesday’s Kevin Warsh Senate confirmation hearing before the Banking Committee is arguably the single most consequential event for precious metals markets this year outside of an FOMC meeting. Warsh’s answers on rate policy, the balance sheet, and how he would handle war-era inflation will be parsed as a forward look at 12+ months of monetary policy. The Friday University of Michigan Final Sentiment reading — against a backdrop of a preliminary print that hit an all-time low of 47.6 — is the other anchor. Data-wise, ADP on Tuesday, Flash PMIs and jobless claims on Thursday, and Durable Goods on Friday round out the week, all of it landing in the last window before the FOMC blackout and the May 1 rate decision.
- Monday:
– No tier-1 U.S. data releases. - Tuesday:
– 8:15 AM ET: ADP Private Payrolls (April)
– 10:00 AM ET: Kevin Warsh Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearing - Wednesday:
– No tier-1 U.S. data releases. - Thursday:
– 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
– 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI (April)
– Flash US Services PMI (April) - Friday:
– 8:30 AM ET: Advance Durable Goods Orders (March)
– 10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, April)
Geopolitics
As the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire neared expiration, a U.S. Navy destroyer fired on and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Arabian Sea after it defied the American blockade of Iranian ports. Iran vowed retaliation while sending mixed signals on whether it would attend a second round of peace talks in Pakistan. Key sticking points remain: nuclear enrichment timelines — the U.S. wants a 20-year ban, Iran offered five years — and Hormuz. Brent crude climbed to around $96/barrel on the news. U.S. gas prices stood at $4.04/gallon, up 36% since the war began, with the Energy Secretary acknowledging prices are unlikely to return to prewar levels anytime soon.
A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck off Japan’s northeastern coast, triggering tsunami warnings across Iwate, Aomori, and Hokkaido prefectures. Waves reaching up to 2.5 feet were recorded, well below the feared 10-foot maximum. Tens of thousands were ordered to evacuate to higher ground. No casualties or damage to nuclear facilities were reported, including at Fukushima Daiichi. Japanese authorities also issued an advisory for a slightly elevated risk of a subsequent megaquake, estimated at 1% probability — ten times above baseline. Bullet train services were suspended across affected regions.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel remaining and that flight cancellations could follow if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Calling it the largest energy crisis ever faced, Birol said prolonged disruption would drive up gasoline, gas, and electricity prices globally, with developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America bearing the worst impact first. He also warned against normalizing Iran’s “toll booth” transit system, cautioning it could set a precedent for other strategic waterways including the Malacca Strait.
The Call
Gold trading 4828, pressing that 4800-4835 zone again. It’s been tested several times now after holding higher lows on the pullback. Not rejecting, just absorbing. Support holds 4720-4660, with 4625 the line that’s been defended. Silver still lagging the move, holding its base but not pushing highs. Background remains tense around Iran, but the market isn’t reacting aggressively – more steady positioning than panic. If gold clears and holds above 4835, it likely moves quickly. If not, it continues to grind in this range.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,780 spot and then traded sharply lower Monday on the Islamabad talks collapse before reversing powerfully higher midweek — the surprise PPI miss on Tuesday (+0.5% vs. +1.1% expected, core only +0.1%) sparked a significant relief rally that was dramatically extended on Friday when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to all commercial shipping during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire period, sending oil crashing over 10%, the dollar to a six-week low, and gold to a weekly high of $4,878 before a modest Friday close at $4,868. For the week gold was higher by $88 and finished near the higher end of our range, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
- The U.S. Dollar Index opened near $99.30, spiked to approximately $99.85 to close the week at approximately $98.20, a net weekly decline of 1.10 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed from 63.1 to approximately 59.0 on the week, collapsing 4.1 points as silver surged from $75.80 to close at $82.52 on Friday.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,780 | 75.80 |
| High | 4,878 | 82.52 |
| Low | 4,643 | 73.58 |
| Close | 4,868 | 82.52 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
