Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 212
Issue 212 – The Week of April 6, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 4,576 | 4,791 |
| 4,376 | 4,815 |
| 4,224 | 4,960 |
| 4,126 | 5000 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 70.00 | 74.00 |
| 65.00 | 76.00 |
| 61.00 | 79.00 |
| 57.00 | 83.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This is arguably the most data-dense week of the first quarter for precious metals traders. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) and the March CPI – expected by Barclays to be the hottest monthly reading since May 2022 – both land in the same week, flanked by FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the GDP final estimate on Thursday. That alone would make this a pivotal week; layered on top is President Trump’s Tuesday evening ultimatum requiring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM ET or face severe new strikes. Note that Easter Monday keeps European and U.K. markets closed and liquidity thin for Monday’s ISM Services print. The PCE, the CPI, and Trump’s Iran deadline are the three events that will define gold’s direction heading into the back half of April.
- Monday:
– 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI - Tuesday:
– 8:15 AM ET: ADP Private Payrolls - Wednesday:
– 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes - Thursday
– 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index
– 8:30 AM ET: GDP Q4 2025
– 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims - Friday
– 8:30 AM ET: US CPI (March)
– 10:00 AM ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (April)
Geopolitics
Trump issued an harsh ultimatum threatening to strike Iran’s power plants and bridges by Tuesday evening if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, while simultaneously saying there was a “good chance” of a deal. Iran dismissed the threat and maintained it would charge transit tolls to compensate for war damage. The ultimatum marks the fourth time Trump has extended his Hormuz deadline. Meanwhile, Israel struck a petrochemical facility and the Qasem Soleimani international airport in Iran, while Iranian missiles hit a residential building in Haifa and caused significant damage to oil and petrochemical facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Earlier, Trump publicly stated his preference to “take the oil in Iran” and raised the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, which handles over 90% of Iran’s oil exports. He noted the U.S. has “a lot of options” but stopped short of committing to a specific course of action, while 3,500 additional U.S. troops arrived in the region. U.S. crude remains above $100/barrel.
Taiwan’s Nationalist Party (KMT) chairperson Cheng Li-wun is set to visit China – the first such trip by a party leader in a decade – meeting with Xi Jinping weeks before the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15. Cheng has stalled approval of a $40 billion defense spending increase proposed by Taiwan’s government, potentially jeopardizing a $14 billion U.S. arms package. Taiwan’s government accused Beijing of using Cheng’s visit to undermine U.S. arms procurement. The visit highlights deepening political divisions in Taiwan over how to manage relations with Beijing amid growing uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the island’s defense.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is heading to Washington amid escalating tensions after Trump threatened to reassess U.S. membership in the alliance, calling it a “paper tiger.” Trump’s central grievance is NATO members’ refusal to help clear the Strait of Hormuz and their restrictions on U.S. use of European bases for Iran strikes. Analysts warn something “fundamental has broken” in the alliance, with European nations accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. The rift compounds existing divisions over Ukraine, where Trump has halted military aid and eased Russian oil sanctions over European objections.
The Call
Gold held the break and didn’t follow through lower. That matters. We are now building higher lows into resistance, which is how squeezes usually start. The level is right in front of us, 4720 to 4800. If it gets back above and holds, that outside-week damage is effectively negated and it can move quickly higher. Silver is confirming. It held the 66-70 area and is now pushing up. That’s not weak behavior. What makes this interesting is positioning. Funds already sold into the break, so if this turns there’s less supply overhead and more room for a move. The risk is straightforward, a failure back under 4600 and this was just a bounce. Failed breakdown, possible squeeze setup. But it has to prove it right here.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened Sunday evening at $4,493 spot and then traded higher all week, extending the prior week’s recovery on ceasefire speculation and end-of-quarter repositioning, making the weekly high of $4,796 on Thursday afternoon before Trump’s combative primetime Iran address – which offered no ceasefire timeline and renewed escalation threats – triggered a sharp reversal, before the metal recovered to close Friday at $4,677 on the combination of a surging +178K NFP print landing to closed markets and fresh Hormuz diplomatic signals. For the week gold was higher by approximately $184 and finished near the higher end of our range.
- The U.S. Dollar Index closed Thursday near $99.78, a net gain of approximately 0.12 points.
- The Gold/Silver ratio narrowed from approximately 66.1 to 64.0 on the week, declining 2.1 points as silver significantly outperformed gold during the mid-week ceasefire rally.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4,493 | 68.00 |
| High | 4,796 | 75.93 |
| Low | 4,461 | 67.50 |
| Close | 4,677 | 73.03 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
