Issue 21 – The week of July 4th, 2022

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

Reports of Note due out this week:

Monday

• CAD Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey. The Business Outlook Survey shows the business outlook in Canada. An optimistic view of those executives is considered bullish for the C$, whereas a pessimistic view is considered bearish.

Tuesday

• CAD Building Permits. The Building Permits released by Statistics Canada show the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (the Canadian economic development). It tends to cause some volatility in the CAD. The more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

Wednesday

• USA FOMC Minutes. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
• USA EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact worldwide economies, affecting most, commodity-related currencies such as the C$.

Thursday

• USA ADP Employment Change. The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US.

Friday

• USA Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Reports. The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges by dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labour force.
• CAD Unemployment Rate. Is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force.
• CAD Net Change in Employment. Is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth.
• USA CFTC Net Gold Positions. The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides information on the size and the direction of the positions taken, across all maturities.

Geopolitics

This week marks the beginning of a slower summer trading season as not just traders but everyone in the northern hemisphere starts to take their first summer vacations since the Covid pandemic hit.

We see the world in much the same state it was last week. The war in Ukraine is now 131 days old and shows no indication that a settlement is in sight. The double-edged sword of high inflation and supply chain disruptions spreads to more countries each passing day. The cost of food and energy products continues to rise affecting the level of disposable income for many people around the globe. It is also affecting people’s ability to make a living. Today it is being reported that Sri Lanka has just a one-day supply of gasoline left.

The Call

Precious metals remain under pressure this week. North American trading will have a reduced week as New York will be closed Monday for the Independence Day holiday. The big driver of the week will be the release on Friday of US employment figures. Breaks below last week’s lows could portend extended moves to the downside, as there isn’t a lot of technical support at lower levels.  

Last Week in Review

• Precious metals had quite the sell-off over the week before recouping some of the losses by Friday’s market close.
• NATO ups battle-ready troops from 40,000 to 300,000 in the European theatre in response to Russian aggression
• Finland and Sweden received support to join NATO from Turkey
• Gasoline sales were banned for two weeks in Sri Lanka due to shortages
• Turkey detains Russian-flagged grain ship that sailed from Ukraine

	Gold	Silver
Open	1837	21.19
High	1840	21.52
Low	1784	19.37
Close	1810	19.86