Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 208
Issue 208 – The Week of March 9th, 2026
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 5,070.00 | 5,125.00 |
| 4,995.00 | 5,200.00 |
| 4,880.00 | 5,300.00 |
| 4,750.00 | 5,390.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 83.00 | 85.00 |
| 78.00 | 88.00 |
| 75.00 | 90.00 |
| 70.00 | 93.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
A heavyweight data slate arrives at a precarious moment. With the Federal Reserve’s March 18 rate decision just one week out – and the PCE report controversially rescheduled to April 9 – this week’s CPI print on Wednesday now carries outsized importance as the clearest inflation signal the Fed will have before it votes. Traders will also be digesting a secondary estimate of Q4 2025 GDP on Friday alongside the labor market’s latest pulse via Jobless Claims on Thursday, all of it against a backdrop of sharply rising oil prices and a dollar that is climbing to multi-month highs on safe-haven demand tied to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.
- Monday, March 9 – No tier-1 U.S. economic releases scheduled. Markets open in full risk-off mode following weekend geopolitical escalation; positioning flows and equity weakness are dominating early price action.
- Tuesday, March 10 – No confirmed tier-1 U.S. data releases. Secondary Fed commentary and Treasury bill auctions (4-week, 8-week) expected throughout the session.
- Wednesday, March 11
8:30 AM ET: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – February | Forecast: +2.2% YoY (Prior: +2.4%); Core CPI MoM Forecast: +0.2% (Prior: +0.3%).
The single most market-moving release of the week and the key inflation input for the March 18 FOMC. Note: PCE has been rescheduled to April 9, making this CPI the only Fed-preferred inflation proxy available ahead of the meeting. - Thursday, March 12
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims | Forecast: ~221,000 (Prior: 213,000).
Coming one week after the stunning February NFP miss of −92,000, this print will be scrutinized for signs of accelerating labor market deterioration. - Friday, March 13
8:30 AM ET: GDP Q4 2025 – Second Estimate (BEA); 10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Preliminary); 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings.
A trifecta close: the GDP revision could revise the Q4 growth narrative materially, while UMich long-term inflation expectations will inform whether the “higher for longer” trade has retail-level backing.
Geopolitics
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has struck over 3,000 targets, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and creating a leadership vacuum. Iran continues retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the region, hitting Gulf states, Israel, and Lebanon, while Russia is reportedly providing Iran with intelligence on U.S. force locations. Oil prices surged past $100/barrel, and Qatar’s energy minister warned of global GDP impacts if the conflict continues. Over 940 Iranians, 11 Israelis, 6 U.S. service members, and 123 Lebanese have been killed. Diplomatic tensions are rising, with NATO increasing missile defense posture and nearly 20,000 Americans evacuated from the region. The U.S. is prosecuting the Iran war largely without European support. Spain barred U.S. military planes from its bases, France called the strikes illegal, and the U.K. limited participation to “defensive” actions only. Germany has been more cooperative, permitting use of Ramstein Air Base. Despite public friction, several European nations have deployed naval and air assets to Cyprus following an Iranian drone strike on a British base there. Notably, Ukraine – previously sidelined by Washington – is now being sought for anti-drone expertise, potentially shifting its geopolitical leverage.
French President Macron announced France will increase its nuclear warhead count – the first such expansion since at least 1992 – and will allow temporary deployments of nuclear-armed aircraft to allied nations, including Germany, Poland, and the U.K. Macron stressed that launch authority remains solely with the French president. The announcement reflects growing European anxiety over the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella amid strained transatlantic relations under the Trump administration. France is the only nuclear power within the EU.
Russia launched a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine, firing 480 drones and 29 missiles targeting energy, railway, and residential infrastructure nationwide. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted the majority, but strikes killed at least 10 people – including two children – in Kharkiv, where a ballistic missile destroyed a five-storey residential building. Fifteen others were wounded and 19 residential buildings damaged in the city. In Kyiv, heating was knocked out for nearly 3,000 apartment buildings after energy infrastructure was hit. Railway stations, port facilities in Odesa, and a grain warehouse were also struck. President Zelenskyy called on international partners to maintain weapons and air defense support.
Violent protests erupted across Pakistan after the U.S.-Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, prompting authorities to deploy troops and impose a three-day curfew in the northern cities of Gilgit and Skardu. At least 12 people were killed and 80 injured in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, where Shiite demonstrators attacked UN offices, burned a police station, and damaged local buildings. In Karachi, protesters stormed the U.S. Consulate, leaving 10 dead and 50 injured. The U.S. Embassy suspended visa services nationwide citing security concerns. Pakistan’s benchmark stock index plunged nearly 10% amid the turmoil. The unrest compounds existing regional instability, as Pakistan is simultaneously engaged in cross-border fighting with Afghanistan following retaliatory strikes that began the previous week.
The Call
Gold backed off after failing above the 5,300 zone earlier in the last week and is now trading around 5,110. Near-term resistance sits 5,125 – 5,170, where sellers have leaned repeatedly over the past few sessions. Support underneath remains 5,070 – 5,020. As long as that band holds, the broader structure stays intact, but momentum has cooled after the rejection higher.
Silver sitting near 84.00, still holding inside the 81-85 range that has defined most of the week. Resistance builds 88-90, with heavier supply higher toward 93-97.
Markets remain sensitive to headlines. Any escalation from the war in Iran, which has pushed oil over $100 a barrel, could easily send metals higher. The longer this conflict continues, impacting the global economy, the potential for a move outside the current price channel grows. Traders are watching economic data and yields, and seeing how the war chips fall, leaving both markets rotating inside their weekly zones for now.
Last Week in Review
Gold suffered its worst weekly performance in months during the week of March 2–7, 2026, whipsawed by the eruption of direct U.S.-Israeli military action against Iranian targets – a geopolitical shock that sent conflicting signals across asset classes and ultimately resolved bearishly for the metal. The week opened near $5,390, with an early Monday spike to $5,419 as safe-haven buyers piled in on news of the weekend strikes. That premium evaporated quickly as surging crude oil prices reignited stagflation fears, pressuring gold alongside equities through mid-week; a “sell everything” wave on Thursday – fueled by the U.S. Dollar Index surging toward a five-week high – drove gold to a weekly low of $4,996, testing and holding its key support band. Friday’s February Non-Farm Payrolls report dealt a dramatic reversal: at -92,000 versus a +59,000 consensus expectation – the largest monthly decline in four months – the miss crushed the dollar late in the session and allowed gold to recover, closing the week at $5,171, down roughly 4.1% on the week.
- U.S. Dollar Index: The DXY posted what USAGOLD described as its steepest weekly advance in over a year, surging from an opening near 97.20 on Monday to a five-week high of approximately 99.35 by Thursday as oil-driven yield pressure and flight-to-liquidity flows overwhelmed the usual inverse gold-dollar dynamic. The dollar then pulled back on Friday’s NFP shock, settling the week around 99.00 for a net weekly gain of approximately +1.80 points (+1.85%); by Monday morning’s open it had extended further to 99.58 (+0.60%) as fresh weekend escalation renewed safe-haven dollar demand.
- Gold/Silver Ratio: The ratio widened sharply on the week, opening at approximately 57.3 (gold $5,390 / silver $94.20) and closing near 61.5 (gold $5,171 / silver $84.00) – a move of roughly +4.2 points as silver’s industrial demand profile made it more vulnerable to the stagflation-driven selloff. Silver’s weekly decline exceeded gold’s on both an absolute and percentage basis, reflecting heavier speculative liquidation during Thursday’s oil-shock-led risk-off session.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 5,390 | 94.20 |
| High | 5,419 | 95.00 |
| Low | 4,996 | 79.00 |
| Close | 5,171 | 84.00 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
