Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 205

Reports of Note Due This Week

This shortened trading week begins after a U.S. holiday and features several high‑impact releases drawn from Bloomberg’s economic calendar. The focus will be on inflation, housing and retail data along with the Federal Reserve’s minutes and other central‑bank publications.

• Monday:
  Markets Closed for Presidents Day (US), Family Day (CAN)
• Tuesday:
  5:30AM – U.S. Consumer Price Index (Jan), Retail Sales (Jan Expected)
• Wednesday
  5:30AM – Housing Starts & Building Permits (Nov–Dec) and Durable Goods Orders (Dec)
  11:00AM – FOMC Minutes
  1:00PM – Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities (Dec)
• Thursday:
  5:30AM – New Housing Price Index (Jan) and Merchandise Trade Balance (Dec)
  5:30AM – Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14)Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14) & Goods & Services Trade Balance (Dec) & Advance Economic Indicators Report (Dec)
  7:00AM – Pending Homes Sales (Jan)
• Friday:
  5:30AM – Retail Sales (Dec) and Real GDP (Q4)
  6:45AM – S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Feb prelim)
  7:00AM – New Home Sales (Nov–Dec) & Quarterly Services Survey (Q4) & University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb final)

Geopolitics

NATO launched a new security initiative called Arctic Sentry to better coordinate allied military activity in the Arctic, responding to growing concerns about Russian and Chinese activity in the region and heightened internal tensions after Donald Trump threatened to annex Greenland, a semiautonomous part of Denmark. The effort does not involve permanent troop deployments but instead places existing national exercises – such as Denmark’s Arctic Endurance and Norway’s Cold Response – under a single NATO command structure to identify security gaps, according to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Coordinated through NATO’s U.S. headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia, Arctic Sentry is meant to reinforce stability in the High North, with countries including the U.K., France, Germany and Denmark contributing forces, while allies hope the initiative helps NATO refocus on its core challenge: Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Iran and the United States are preparing for a second round of bilateral nuclear talks, with Iranian officials signaling openness to an agreement that delivers tangible economic benefits to both sides. An Iranian diplomat said Tehran is seeking a more durable deal than the 2015 nuclear pact by offering U.S. participation in areas such as oil and gas projects, mining investments, and aircraft purchases, arguing that the earlier agreement failed to generate direct economic gains for Washington. Talks resumed this month amid heightened tensions, including the deployment of additional U.S. naval forces to the region and warnings of potential military action if diplomacy fails. U.S. officials say President Donald Trump prefers a negotiated solution but is maintaining pressure through sanctions and military readiness. Iran has indicated willingness to limit aspects of its nuclear program, such as diluting highly enriched uranium, in exchange for sanctions relief, while maintaining its position that it will not abandon domestic uranium enrichment.

The U.S. military said it carried out a series of retaliatory airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria following a December ambush that killed two American soldiers and a U.S. civilian interpreter. U.S. Central Command reported that between Feb. 3 and Thursday, American aircraft conducted 10 strikes against more than 30 ISIS sites, including weapons storage facilities and other infrastructure, resulting in at least 50 militants killed or captured and more than 100 targets hit overall since operations began. Separately, Syria’s Defense Ministry said government forces retook the Al-Tanf base in eastern Syria, previously used by U.S. troops in the fight against ISIS, while the U.S. completed the transfer of thousands of ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq at Baghdad’s request, where they are expected to face trial.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the United States for emphasizing Ukrainian concessions in peace talks while applying insufficient pressure on Russia, as Kyiv, Moscow and Washington prepare for another round of trilateral negotiations next week. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy said concessions are “too often” discussed only in Ukraine’s context, even as President Donald Trump urged him to move faster toward a deal, suggesting Russia is ready to negotiate. U.S. officials acknowledged progress but said the hardest issues remain unresolved, particularly territorial demands in eastern Ukraine, which Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians reject. Zelenskyy warned that peace cannot come from dividing Ukraine and stressed that only strong security guarantees can deliver a just and lasting settlement.