Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 193

Reports of Note Due This Week

The upcoming week brings a relatively light U.S. calendar until mid‑week. Markets will focus on the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the Producer Price Index and retail‑sales data on Friday. Outside the U.S., investors will watch Australian labour figures, U.K. growth data, and China’s October activity readings. The lack of U.S. data early in the week could leave precious metals consolidating ahead of the inflation releases.

• Monday
  – No reports of note
• Tuesday
  2:00 am – U.K. labour‑market data
• Wednesday
  10:30 am – U.S. EIA crude‑oil inventory report
  2:00 pm – U.S. Monthly budget statement
• Thursday
  8:30 am – U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October
  10:30 am – U.S. EIA natural‑gas inventory report
• Friday
  8:30 am – U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
  10:00 a.m. University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment (preliminary)

Geopolitics

China officially commissioned its most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, marking a major milestone in its naval modernization and ambitions to rival U.S. maritime power. The Fujian -China’s first fully domestically designed and built carrier- features an electromagnetic catapult system similar to that of the U.S. USS Gerald R. Ford, allowing aircraft to launch with heavier payloads. Presided over by President Xi Jinping at a ceremony on Hainan Island, the carrier joins the Liaoning and Shandong, expanding China’s carrier fleet to three. Analysts say the Fujian significantly enhances China’s ability to project power across the Pacific and could play a key role in any conflict over Taiwan. Unlike U.S. carriers, it is conventionally powered but boasts the world’s largest non-nuclear warship design. Neighboring nations, including Japan, expressed concern over China’s rapid and opaque military expansion, pledging vigilance in response to Beijing’s growing capabilities.

President Donald Trump granted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas, a move widely seen as bolstering Orbán ahead of tough elections and deepening his ties to Washington. Orbán, who met Trump in Washington on Friday, said the deal guarantees “full sanction exemptions” for key energy pipelines, enabling Hungary to maintain Europe’s lowest energy prices. In exchange, Hungary agreed to buy $600 million in U.S. liquefied natural gas and shift its nuclear fuel purchases from Russia to American suppliers. The White House confirmed the exemption, underscoring Trump’s willingness to accommodate allies like Orbán, who has maintained close relations with Vladimir Putin despite European Union pressure. The decision follows Trump’s cancellation of a planned summit with Putin in Budapest, signaling a recalibrated but still pragmatic approach to U.S.-Russia relations through regional intermediaries like Hungary.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his top officials to prepare plans for potentially resuming nuclear weapons testing in response to President Donald Trump’s directive for the U.S. to restart testing for the first time in more than 30 years. During a televised Security Council meeting, Putin said Russia would take “appropriate retaliatory measures” if the U.S. proceeded. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Gen. Valery Gerasimov backed immediate preparations, noting tests could take months or years to organize. Moscow sought clarification from Washington but received no official explanation. Trump’s order to begin testing – possibly at the Nevada Test Site- has drawn criticism from scientists and nonproliferation experts. While U.S. officials have offered mixed messages about whether the tests would involve actual nuclear detonations, Putin’s move signals heightened nuclear tensions, with Russia ready to test at its Novaya Zemlya site, the same location used for recent missile trials.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a Sudanese paramilitary group accused of mass atrocities, said it had accepted a U.S.-led ceasefire proposal aimed at ending the 18-month war in Sudan that has displaced millions and caused famine. However, a U.S. State Department spokesperson clarified that negotiations were ongoing, with Washington urging both the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to finalize a humanitarian truce. The RSF said it agreed to the ceasefire to ease suffering and allow aid delivery, but the Sudanese military insisted it would only accept a deal requiring the RSF to withdraw from civilian areas and disarm. The RSF’s recent capture of el-Fasher, the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, sparked reports of mass killings and executions, with satellite imagery showing bodies in city streets. The conflict between RSF leader Gen. Mohammed “Hemedti” Dagalo and army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan has killed over 40,000 people since erupting in April 2023.