Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 192
Issue 192 – The Week of November 3rd, 2025
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 3,993.00 | 4,020.00 |
| 3,971.00 | 4,075.00 |
| 3,963.00 | 4,125.00 |
| 3,948.00 | 4,150.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 47.50 | 50.00 |
| 46.00 | 51.00 |
| 44.80 | 52.50 |
| 43.50 | 53.50 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
The first full week of November features several high‑impact economic releases and central‑bank speeches. Markets will watch U.S. manufacturing and services surveys, labour productivity data and the monthly employment report, while speeches from Federal Reserve officials may signal future policy direction. Overseas, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets policy, China releases Caixin PMIs and the Bank of England announces its rate decision.
- Monday
9:45 AM ET U.S. PMI Manufacturing
2:00 PM ET Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech - Tuesday
12:30 AM ET Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting & press conference - Wednesday
8:15 AM ET U.S. ADP Employment Change (Oct)
9:45 AM ET U.S. PMI Services & Composite (final) - Thursday
8:30 AM ET U.S. Labor Productivity … Read More
3:30 PM ET Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussion - Friday
8:30 AM ET U.S. Employment Situation (Oct)
3:00 PM ET U.S. Consumer Credit (Sep)
Geopolitics
President Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping has assured him that Beijing will not move to reunify Taiwan with mainland China while he remains in office. Speaking to CBS’s 60 Minutes, Trump said Taiwan did not come up directly during their recent meeting in South Korea but expressed confidence that Xi “knows the consequences” of taking action. While Trump avoided clarifying whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, he maintained Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity.” China’s embassy in Washington reaffirmed that Taiwan remains part of China and that its future “will be decided by the Chinese people.” The White House did not elaborate on Xi’s reported assurances. The interview, taped at Mar-a-Lago, marks Trump’s first 60 Minutes appearance since settling a lawsuit with CBS earlier this year. The issue underscores ongoing tension between U.S. deterrence and Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the army’s final stronghold in Darfur, overrunning the city of el-Fasher in what the U.N. called a “terrible escalation” of the country’s 31-month civil war. Reports from humanitarian groups and satellite imagery suggest RSF fighters carried out killings, house-to-house raids, and widespread detentions, with hundreds of civilians dead or missing. Thousands have fled the city amid evidence of summary executions and violence. The army withdrew, citing a desire to prevent further civilian slaughter, while the Sudanese government expelled two senior World Food Program officials amid growing scrutiny. The RSF, rooted in the Janjaweed militias responsible for past atrocities, has been accused of genocide by international observers. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres urged an end to foreign support for both sides, warning the conflict—already responsible for over 40,000 deaths and mass famine—risks fracturing Sudan further.
The United States has informed Romania and other NATO allies that it will reduce troop rotations on Europe’s eastern flank, including forces previously stationed at Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu air base, according to Romania’s defense ministry. The move is part of President Donald Trump’s broader strategy to shift U.S. military focus toward border security and the Indo-Pacific region, while urging allies to assume more responsibility for their own defense. Romania’s defense ministry said the U.S. will halt the rotation of a brigade with elements spread across several NATO countries, though about 1,000 American troops will remain stationed in Romania. The ministry emphasized that the decision reflects Washington’s evolving priorities and NATO’s strengthened presence in the region, which allows for a more flexible U.S. posture. While NATO has yet to comment, the drawdown has raised concerns among allies bordering Russia. Still, Trump said in September that Washington could increase its European troop presence if necessary.
Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to maintain a ceasefire following renewed peace talks in Istanbul mediated by Turkey and Qatar, after earlier discussions collapsed amid deadly border clashes. Both nations will reconvene on November 6 to finalize implementation details and establish a monitoring and verification mechanism to penalize violations. While the ceasefire has largely held, key trade crossings remain closed, stranding hundreds of trucks and refugees. Afghan spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid reaffirmed Kabul’s commitment to diplomacy and “mutual respect,” while Pakistan’s defense minister said Islamabad was giving “peace another chance” at the request of mediators. Tensions escalated earlier this month after Afghanistan accused Pakistan of airstrikes in Kabul, prompting retaliatory attacks that killed dozens on both sides. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir warned that while his country seeks peaceful relations, it will not tolerate terrorism from Afghan soil.
The Call
After last week’s $400 plunge, gold found its footing and began to claw back lost ground. The market tested the lows near $3,915 before stabilizing just above $4,000, setting a cautious tone heading into November. The Fed and Bank of Canada both cut rates last week This is a rare coordinated move acknowledging that the classic 2% inflation target may no longer fit today’s economy. Some central banks are now openly discussing a 3% baseline as the new normal. If that view gains traction, it implies a longer-term floor under precious metals. Technically, support rests at $3,993 / 3,971 / 3,963 / 3,948, with resistance layered between $4,015 and $4,090. Momentum has slowed, but sentiment remains constructive. The market looks ready to consolidate around the $4,000 mark before deciding its next leg.
We also need to talk about silver, because that market has gone off the rails. At Guardian, we made the difficult decision two weeks ago to pause silver scrap purchases. Pricing dislocation and refining bottlenecks have made it nearly impossible to sell material through our normal channels. Silver futures went into backwardation in September, meaning the December contract traded more than $1 below spot, while lease rates spiked to 60%. That collapse in the financing model broke refiners’ ability to borrow and process metal. Settlements slowed to a crawl. Buying at spot while the forward market trades at a discount would lock in losses. So we hit pause.
We took this step to protect both our clients and the business from forced losses in a broken market. The good news: the forward discount is starting to narrow and lease rates are easing. If that trend continues, we’ll resume silver buying as conditions normalize.
For now, gold stays the anchor. Steady, slightly defensive, but still the asset that benefits when everything else looks uncertain.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened the week of Oct 27 – Oct 31 at US$4 064.69 per troy ounce, surged to a high of US$4 097.74, and dropped to an intra‑week low of US$3 886.92 before closing Friday near US$3 979.57statmuse.com. Early week buying was spurred by safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but prices retreated mid‑week as the U.S. dollar firmed and Treasury yields ticked higher following solid U.S. GDP and inflation data. After testing support near US$3 900, bullion found buyers on Friday when weaker‑than‑expected housing numbers revived hopes for rate cuts in 2025. Overall, the yellow metal ended the week slightly lower but held within the broader uptrend established in early October.
Silver tracked gold’s volatility: it opened at US$48.17 per ounce, reached a high of US$49.36, slipped to US$45.56, and settled at US$48.70. The grey metal underperformed on Monday as industrial metals sold off, but regained ground later in the week alongside gold. Despite a mid‑week dip to the mid‑US$45s, silver closed above its opening level, supported by renewed safe‑haven demand and bargain‑hunting at lower levels. Nevertheless, the gold/silver ratio still narrowed over the week, reflecting silver’s relative resilience.
- U.S. Dollar Index: The nominal broad U.S. dollar index (DTWEXBGS) rose from 121.0394 on Oct 20 to 121.3420 on Oct 24, gaining roughly 0.3 points as stronger U.S. economic data and hawkish FOMC rhetoric supported the greenback.
- Gold/Silver Ratio: Based on last week’s open and close, the ratio fell from ≈84.38 (4 064.69 ÷ 48.17) to ≈81.72 (3 979.57 ÷ 48.70), a drop of about 2.66 points, signalling silver’s relative outperformance.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 4 064.69 | 48.17 |
| High | 4 097.74 | 49.36 |
| Low | 3 886.92 | 45.56 |
| Close | 3 979.57 | 48.70 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
