Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 187

Reports of Note Due This Week

The coming week is packed with important U.S. economic data that could influence precious‑metal prices and broader market sentiment. The Chicago Fed’s national activity index will give the first read on growth momentum, followed by early manufacturing and services PMIs from S&P Global. Mid‑week, the U.S. Census Bureau releases new‑home sales and the EIA publishes its weekly petroleum report. Thursday’s focus is on the third estimate of Q2 GDP and initial jobless claims, while Friday brings a trio of high‑importance releases—durable‑goods orders, corporate profits, and August personal‑income and outlay figures including the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The week ends with preliminary September consumer‑sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

• Monday, Sept 22
  8:30 AM ET – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug).
• Tuesday, Sept 23
  8:30 AM ET – U.S. Current‑Account Balance (Q2)
  9:45 AM ET – S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Flash Sep).
  10 AM ET – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10 AM.
• Wednesday, Sept 24
  7:00 AM ET – MBA Mortgage Applications.
  10 AM ET – U.S. Census Bureau New Home Sales (Aug)
• Thursday, Sept 25
  8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims & GDP Third Estimate (Q2 2025).
  11 AM ET – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
• Friday, Sept 26
  8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Corporate Profits (Q2) and Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) including the Core PCE Price Index.
  10 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim Sep).

Geopolitics

Iran is weighing its response after the reimposition of U.N. sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, which freeze assets, halt arms sales, and restrict ballistic missile development. The move, triggered by France, Germany, and the U.K., follows Tehran’s refusal to restore monitoring access for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the June war with Israel. Iranian lawmakers suggested Parliament may debate withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though officials downplayed that such a step would automatically mean pursuing nuclear weapons. Tehran still holds uranium enriched up to 60% –  just short of weapons-grade – raising Western concerns. Domestically, the sanctions exacerbate Iran’s economic struggles, with the rial at record lows and food prices surging. Iranian leaders warned of “reciprocal action” against countries enforcing the sanctions, while U.S. officials said diplomacy remains possible if Tehran returns to direct talks.

The U.S. Supreme Court granted the Trump administration authority to withhold $4 billion in foreign aid previously approved by Congress, pausing a lower court ruling that required the funds be spent before the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. The 6-3 decision, delivered through an emergency order, cited that challenges under the Impoundment Control Act may not be legally valid and argued that the executive’s foreign policy considerations outweigh potential harm to aid recipients. Liberal justices dissented, criticizing the court’s repeated approval of emergency requests without full hearings. The administration says it will still spend $6.5 billion of appropriated aid but aims to cancel the remaining $4 billion through a controversial “pocket rescission” tactic not used in decades. The decision intensifies debate over executive versus congressional control of federal spending, with Democrats urging Congress to reassert its constitutional “power of the purse.”

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung warned Thursday that North Korea is close to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the U.S., though it still lacks reliable atmospheric re-entry technology – a final step he said Pyongyang could soon master. Speaking in New York, Lee said North Korea already has enough nuclear weapons for regime survival and continues to produce nuclear material at four enrichment sites, adding that if left unchecked it could add 15-20 warheads annually and eventually export its excess arsenal. He urged a phased “freeze, reduce, dismantle” approach to North Korea’s nuclear program, suggesting Donald Trump is uniquely positioned to negotiate with Kim Jong Un given their past rapport. North Korea, meanwhile, has deepened military ties with Russia, tested its largest ICBM, and rejected calls for denuclearization, insisting it must be recognized as a nuclear state.