Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 186
Issue 186 – The Week of September 22, 2025
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 3,660.00 | 3,710.00 |
| 3,620.00 | 3,750.00 |
| 3,580.00 | 3,790.00 |
| 3,540.00 | 3,840.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 42.80 | 43.20 |
| 42.20 | 43.80 |
| 41.80 | 44.50 |
| 41.20 | 45.50 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
- Monday, Sept 22
8:30 AM ET – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug). A broad gauge of economic activity that feeds into recession risk assessments. - Tuesday, Sept 23
9:45 AM ET – S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI (Flash, Sep). These flash PMIs provide an early read on economic momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors.
10:00 AM ET – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep). Regional manufacturing gauge from the Richmond Fed. - Wednesday, Sept 24
7:00 AM ET – MBA Mortgage Applications (Weekly). Measures mortgage demand and refinancing; sensitive to interest‑rate movements.
10:30 AM ET – EIA Petroleum Status Report. Official U.S. crude inventory data, affecting energy prices and inflation expectations. - Thursday, Sept 25
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly). Monitor labor‑market health.
8:30 AM ET – GDP (Third Estimate) – Q2 2025. Final revision to second‑quarter GDP; considered a high‑importance release
10:00 AM ET – Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales (Aug). Housing market indicators. - Friday, Sept 26
8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (Aug). Captures business investment trends.
8:30 AM ET – Personal Income and Outlays (Aug), + Core PCE Price Index. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a key report that could move markets
10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim, Sep). Measures household confidence and inflation expectations
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact on Wednesday, declaring that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both, in a move widely seen as a signal to Israel after its strike on Qatar. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formalized the deal, which emphasizes joint deterrence but avoids explicit reference to nuclear weapons. The pact underscores Saudi Arabia’s historic ties to Pakistan, which many analysts believe previously received Saudi funding for its nuclear program, raising speculation the kingdom could be protected under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella. The agreement comes amid Israel’s widening regional offensive and uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees in the Gulf. India, which maintains close relations with Saudi Arabia, said it would “study the implications” of the accord, while Pakistan maintains deliberate ambiguity over whether its nuclear arsenal applies to the deal.
A U.N. Security Council resolution to halt the reimposition of sanctions on Iran failed Friday after weeks of negotiations collapsed. South Korea, which currently presides over the council, introduced the measure, but it received support from only four countries – China, Russia, Pakistan, and Algeria – falling short of the nine votes needed. France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered the “snapback mechanism” under the 2015 nuclear deal, automatically reinstating pre-deal sanctions, including arms embargoes, missile restrictions, and financial penalties. Western leaders argue Iran has failed to meet obligations and blocked inspections, while Tehran insists its program is peaceful and recently pledged to allow IAEA access under a new Egypt-mediated deal. Russia and China condemned the move as unjustified, warning it ends years of diplomacy. Iran’s Foreign Ministry vowed to defend its rights and respond appropriately, while the U.K. signaled openness to renewed diplomatic efforts.
A cyberattack on Collins Aerospace’s check-in software disrupted several European airports for a second day, hitting Brussels Airport hardest. Since Friday, staff at Brussels, Berlin, and London airports have been forced to use backup systems, including handwritten boarding passes, after the U.S.-based firm’s software outage. Brussels Airport canceled 25 departures Saturday, 50 Sunday, and has asked airlines to cancel nearly 140 of 276 flights on Monday, warning delays will persist until a secure update is delivered. Collins Aerospace described the disruption as “cyber-related” and limited to check-in and baggage systems, stressing aviation safety and air traffic control were unaffected. EU officials confirmed no wider threat but said the source remains under investigation. While Heathrow and Berlin reported gradual recovery, Brussels remains heavily impacted, relying on extra staff and manual systems to keep 85% of departures moving. The perpetrator of the cyberattack is still unknown.
The Call
Gold has broken loose – we smashed past $3,700 USD this week, with CAD pricing also pushing new thresholds. The quiet accumulation over many months (central banks, institutions) is showing in the strength: selling is getting snapped up almost immediately. Technically, support appears at $3,630, then nearer around $3,550, with stronger bases around $3,500. Resistance is setting up in the $3,707 – $3,740 zone. If we clear that, $3,800 looks possible. Momentum is riding on strong dovish signals from the Fed, upcoming inflation and PCE data, and general geopolitical risk. That said, at these price highs, profitable exits from institutions are a real possibility — so while the upside feels open, so does risk.
Last Week in Review
The week was defined by the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Gold opened Monday at $3,644.40 /oz and firmed ahead of the event as traders anticipated the FOMC’s updated projections. A stronger‑than‑expected retail‑sales report on Wednesday morning briefly pushed the metal down to its weekly low of $3,626.60, but it quickly recovered as the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled only one more possible hike this cycle. Chair Powell’s comments were balanced-acknowledging progress on inflation while warning that policy must stay restrictive-prompting gold to spike to a high of $3,707.70. Profit‑taking ensued, but safe‑haven demand and a modest pullback in yields kept prices supported; by Friday gold closed at $3,686.38, up about $42 on the week
- U.S. Dollar Index: The dollar rallied sharply into the Fed announcement, briefly breaching 104.5 as the updated dot plot leaned hawkish. It eased back slightly by week’s end but still finished higher, capping gold’s gains.
- Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver outperformed as industrial metals rallied, dragging the ratio down from roughly 86.3 at Monday’s open (3,644.40 / 42.21) to about 85.5 at Friday’s close (3,686.38 / 43.11)
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 3,644.40 | 42.21 |
| High | 3,707.70 | 43.15 |
| Low | 3,626.60 | 41.12 |
| Close | 3,686.38 | 43.11 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
