Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 173

Reports of Note Due This Week

This is a holiday shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday. Key takeaways this week will be the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Also retail sales, industrial production, Philly Fed manufacturing and U.S. leading economic indicators.

• Monday, June 16 – 8:30 A.M. Empire State manufacturing survey
• Tuesday June 17 – 8:30 A.M. U.S. retail sales, import price index. 9:15 A.M. Industrial production and capacity utilization. 10:00 A.M. Business inventories and home builder index.
• Wednesday June 18 – 8:30 A.M. Housing starts, building permits and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 250,000 versus last weeks 248,000. 2:00 P.M. FOMC interest-rate decision and 2:30 P.M. Fed Chair Powell press conference.
• Thursday June 19 – none scheduled, Juneteenth holiday.
• Friday June 20 – 8:30 A.M. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 10:00 A.M. U.S. leading economic indicators.

Geopolitics

Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran early Friday, striking 100+ military and nuclear targets with around 200 jets, including sites in Tehran and Natanz. Top Iranian officials and nuclear scientists were killed, prompting Iran to retaliate with 100+ drones. The strikes come ahead of scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which Israel opposes. PM Netanyahu said the operation, dubbed “Rising Lion,” would continue until the Iranian threat is neutralized. The U.S. denied involvement but acknowledged prior knowledge. Analysts cite weakened Iranian proxies, Netanyahu’s political motives, and an attempt to derail nuclear negotiations as reasons for the timing. The escalation follows Iranian claims of leaked Israeli intelligence and growing domestic pressure on Netanyahu. Both nations have closed airspace and are bracing for further strikes. Trump’s muted response hints at reluctance to rein in Israel, despite prior opposition to a preemptive strike.

President Trump signaled conditional approval of Nippon Steel’s $14.9B bid to acquire U.S. Steel, provided specific national security terms are met. The deal, originally blocked by President Biden over security concerns, has faced bipartisan scrutiny due to U.S. Steel’s strategic importance and election-year sensitivities in Pennsylvania. Trump’s executive order outlined that threats to national security could be mitigated through an agreement—details remain undisclosed. A proposed “golden share” would give the U.S. government oversight rights, though its exact scope is unclear. The companies pledged $11B in U.S. investments by 2028. The acquisition contract expires June 18, but may be extended. Markets responded positively, with U.S. Steel shares rising on expectations the deal could proceed. The outcome could influence foreign investment sentiment and raises broader questions about U.S. control of strategic industries—a factor relevant to investors tracking industrial stability, protectionism, and macroeconomic policy impacts on commodities.

A London-bound Air India Boeing 787-8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, killing 241 of 242 people on board. The sole survivor, a British national, walked away with minor injuries. The crash—the first of its kind involving this Boeing model—occurred after the pilot issued a mayday at 625 feet. The aircraft struck a building housing medical students, killing several on the ground and injuring dozens. Both Indian and British leaders expressed condolences, and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board is assisting in the investigation. The aircraft’s operators, Air India, recently privatized under Tata Group, have pledged support for affected families. Boeing shares fell over 4% following the news. The incident is likely to spark renewed scrutiny of aircraft safety and regulatory oversight across global aviation markets—topics with potential long-term implications for travel, insurance, and investor sentiment around aerospace manufacturing and transportation-related commodities.