Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 171

Reports of Note Due This Week

Key takeaways this week will be Friday’s May jobs report, Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks this week. Also on Monday, updates on ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending. We will receive updates on the U.S. trade deficit, consumer credit and factory orders.

• Monday, June 2– 9:45 A.M. S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, 10:00 A.M. ISM manufacturing and Construction spending.
• Tuesday June 3 – 10:00 A.M. Factory orders and Job openings (JOLTS).
• Wednesday June 4 – 8:15 A.M. ADP employment,  9:45 A.M. S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services, 2:00 P.M. Fed Beige Book
• Thursday June 5 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 228,000 versus last weeks 240,000, U.S. trade deficit, U.S. Productivity.
• Friday June 6 – 8:30 A.M. U.S. employment report(nonfarm payroll), U.S. unemployment rate, hourly wages, 3:00 P.M. consumer credit.

Geopolitics

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are intensifying after Beijing accused Washington of “seriously violating” a trade truce agreed last month in Zurich. The Chinese Commerce Ministry criticized the U.S. for introducing new unilateral restrictions, including AI chip export controls, limits on chip design software, and visa revocations for Chinese students. In response, China vowed to take forceful countermeasures to protect its interests. The renewed friction, triggered in part by President Trump’s claim that China had “totally violated” the agreement, has rattled global markets. Asian stocks slid, the U.S. dollar weakened, and European indexes opened lower amid fears the détente is unraveling. Meanwhile, a U.S. court ruling questioned the legality of Trump’s steep tariffs, adding further uncertainty. Analysts warn that the escalating tit-for-tat measures could derail fragile diplomatic efforts and deepen global economic instability.

OPEC+ announced a third consecutive oil production increase, adding 411,000 barrels per day in July to regain market control, pressure over-producing members like Iraq, and curb U.S. shale competition. Despite the hike, oil prices rose around 3% Sunday due to geopolitical tensions, particularly Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Analysts say the production bump was already priced in, and attention is shifting to potential supply disruptions in Libya, Canada, and Iran. The move follows phased rollbacks of previous cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels daily. Analysts warn U.S. drillers may be squeezed further, while OPEC+ plays a long-term volume strategy.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claims it carried out a major drone strike on 41 Russian strategic bombers in an operation codenamed “Spiderweb,” calling it the longest-range attack of the war. The strike reportedly targeted Belaya air base in Siberia, nearly 3,000 miles from Ukraine, using drones concealed in wooden cabins smuggled into Russia. Estimated damages exceed $2 billion. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy praised the operation, which had been planned for over 18 months. Russia has not confirmed the scale of the attack, though local officials acknowledged drone activity. The strike follows a deadly Russian missile barrage and precedes planned peace talks in Istanbul.