Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 170

Reports of Note Due This Week

Key takeaways this week will be Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE)  as well as updates to first quarter GDP, the U.S. trade balance and consumer confidence.

• Monday, May 26– Memorial Day Holiday. None scheduled
• Tuesday May 27 – 8:30 A.M. Durable goods orders. 9:00 A.M. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. 10:00 A.M. Consumer confidence.
• Wednesday May 28 – 2:00 P.M Fed’s FOMC minutes.
• Thursday May 29 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 228,000 versus last weeks 227,000, GDP (first Revision), 10:00 A.M. pending home sales.
• Friday May 30 – 8:30 A.M. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Advance U.S. trade balance, Advance U.S. retail and wholesale inventories, 9:45 A.M. Chicago Business Barometer, 10:00 A.M. Consumer sentiment (final) May

Geopolitics

President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he has agreed to extend the deadline for a proposed 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1 to July 9, following a request from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Trump said the extension was granted after a phone call between the two leaders, during which von der Leyen asked for more time to reach a trade agreement. Both sides described the conversation as positive, with von der Leyen affirming that the EU is ready to advance negotiations “swiftly and decisively.” The extension follows escalating tensions, as Trump had recently threatened steep tariffs on EU goods, criticizing the bloc as “very difficult to deal with.” While Trump had previously imposed 20% tariffs—later reduced to 10% temporarily—he indicated frustration with stalled discussions and had signaled no intent to make a deal before June 1. The extension now opens a brief window to avoid a major trade clash.

Iran and the U.S. concluded a fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday, with both sides signaling limited but notable progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the negotiations “professional” and credited Oman with offering proposals that placed discussions on a “reasonable path.” U.S. officials described the two-hour session as constructive, though unresolved issues persist—chiefly Iran’s uranium enrichment and ballistic missile programs. Tehran insists on its right to enrich uranium and demands assurances the U.S. won’t abandon a future deal, while Washington is pushing for zero enrichment. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands as excessive. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the difficulty of reaching an agreement allowing civilian nuclear energy without enrichment. Israeli officials are also in Rome, heightening tensions, as Iran warned of consequences if Israel strikes its nuclear sites. Both sides agreed to reconvene soon, though a deal before summer remains unlikely.

Russia launched one of its most massive drone and missile attacks on Kyiv overnight Saturday, injuring at least 15 people and causing widespread damage across six districts. The assault came just hours after Russia and Ukraine conducted a major prisoner exchange, the first phase of a deal reached last week in Istanbul to swap 1,000 detainees each. Ukrainian forces intercepted 6 of 14 ballistic missiles and neutralized 245 of 250 Shahed drones. Kyiv officials called it one of the heaviest attacks since the war began. Despite the exchange being hailed as a rare cooperation effort, hostilities remain intense. Russia said it would soon present Ukraine with a draft proposal for a long-term peace deal, but key differences persist. Meanwhile, European leaders have urged President Trump to increase pressure on Putin, warning that delays in peace talks could cost more lives as fighting continues along the 1,000-kilometer front line.