Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 168

Reports of Note Due This Week

The week starts with investors watching the developments of the U.S. and Chinese trade meetings. Key inflation indicators, the CPI will be out on Tuesday and the PPI on Thursday. Also, retail sales, building permits and consumer sentiment.

• Monday, May 12– 2:00 P.M. Monthly U.S. federal budget.
• Tuesday May 13 – 6:00 A.M. NFIB optimism index. 8:30 A.M. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Wednesday May 14 – none scheduled.
• Thursday May 15 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 227,000 versus last weeks 228,000, 8:30 A.M. U.S. retail sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), Empire State manufacturing survey, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 8:40 A.M. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech. 9:15 A.M. Industrial production and capacity utilization, 10:00 A.M. Business inventories and home builder confidence index.
• Friday May 16 – 8:30 A.M. Import price index, housing starts and building permits. 10:00 A.M. Consumer sentiment (preliminary)

Geopolitics

The U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed in recent weeks, cutting U.S. duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China’s tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The agreement, reached during face-to-face talks in Geneva, aims to ease tensions in a spiraling trade war and boost global markets, which surged on the news. Both sides called the deal a significant step toward deeper cooperation, with plans for continued economic dialogue. However, unresolved issues remain, and experts warn the trade conflict could flare up again.

Despite a proposed 30-day ceasefire by European leaders set to begin Monday, Ukrainian officials reported continued Russian attacks, including an overnight assault by more than 100 drones. Ukrainian air defenses downed 55 Shahed drones, while others went off radar with no confirmed damage. Strikes also hit Kharkiv, Sumy, and a civilian freight train in the east. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the unconditional truce, offering instead to hold direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy kept the ceasefire offer open but warned Ukraine would defend itself if attacks persisted. The developments come as both Kyiv and Moscow try to align themselves with U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a peace deal, with Ukraine seeking renewed military support and Russia angling for sanctions relief. It remains unclear whether Putin or Zelenskyy will attend the proposed Istanbul talks in person.

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago has been elected as Pope Leo XIV, becoming the first American-born pontiff in the Catholic Church’s history. Aged 69, Leo XIV addressed a crowd of 150,000 at St. Peter’s Basilica in Spanish and Italian, emphasizing peace, unity, and dialogue. His election has drawn global praise from leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump, former President Obama, and the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, and Peru. Leo will face close scrutiny over his past handling of abuse cases, but his multilingual, cross-cultural background and global church experience are seen as strengths for guiding the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.

India and Pakistan are accusing each other of violating a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced Saturday after deadly clashes in Kashmir. While President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio hailed the deal as a major diplomatic win, confusion reigns: India downplayed U.S. involvement and denied agreeing to broader talks, while Pakistan expressed gratitude for America’s role. Despite official ceasefire declarations, explosions were reported in Srinagar, and both nations issued conflicting statements about who first breached the truce. The ceasefire follows a week of the worst fighting in years, triggered by a terrorist attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir.