Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 166
Issue 166 – The Week of April 28, 2025
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 3254.00 | 3361.00 |
| 3210.00 | 3388.00 |
| 3188.00 | 3428.00 |
| 3144.00 | 3472.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 32.90 | 33.76 |
| 32.71 | 33.94 |
| 32.48 | 34.44 |
| 31.92 | 34.86 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
Key takeaways this week will be updates on first quarter GDP data, the latest consumer confidence report, a trade balance report and housing market reports. The big one of course will be the April jobs report and the latest inflation news.
- Monday, Apr 28– None scheduled.
- Tuesday Apr 29 – 8:30 A.M. Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods and advanced retail and wholesale inventories 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index, 10:00 A.M. consumer confidence and job openings (Jolts).
- Wednesday Apr 30 – 8:15 A.M. ADP employment, 8:30 A.M. GDP, employment cost index. 9:45 A.M. Chicago Business Barometer (PMI). 10:00 A.M. consumer spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and pending home sales.
- Thursday May 1 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 226,000 versus last weeks 222,000, 9:45 A.M. S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, 10:00 A.M. ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending.
- Friday May 2 – 8:30 A.M. U.S. Nonfarm payrolls, U.S. unemployment rate and hourly wages. 10:00 A.M. Factory orders.
Geopolitics
According to a report released by a leading conflict think tank, global military spending soared to a record $2.72 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% increase driven by conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The United States, China, Russia, Germany, and India accounted for 60% of the total. U.S. defense spending reached $997 billion, China’s hit $314 billion, and Russia’s rose sharply by 38%. Europe’s military budgets surged 17%, while Middle Eastern countries, notably Israel, saw a 15% rise. NATO members collectively spent over $1.5 trillion, with 18 members meeting the 2% GDP defense target. The WTO warned that this surge could strain global economies, diverting funds from vital sectors and increasing trade instability.
India has announced a series of retaliatory measures against Pakistan after 26 people were killed in a mass shooting at a tourist site in Indian-administered Kashmir. These include closing the main border crossing, suspending the longstanding Indus Water Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and ordering some Pakistani visa holders to leave within 48 hours. India blames Pakistan for indirectly supporting the attackers, though Pakistan denies involvement and plans to convene its National Security Council. The attack, among the deadliest in recent memory for the region, risks reigniting tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed justice, while Defence Minister Rajnath Singh hinted that India’s response would also target those who conspired behind the scenes. The attack has been widely condemned internationally and has deeply shaken Kashmir’s tourism industry.
Russia has formally acknowledged that North Korean troops are fighting alongside its forces in Ukraine, with Russia’s top general crediting them for helping reclaim the Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin praised their “significant assistance” under a strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. South Korea had earlier reported that over 11,000 North Korean troops were deployed, with thousands killed or injured. The announcement follows a renewed Russian offensive after the Trump administration temporarily suspended aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump continues pressing for a ceasefire deal that would require Ukraine to concede territory—terms President Zelenskyy has rejected.
The Call
Our call last week was very accurate with a very volatile 237.00 range from high to low. We are looking for a quieter week this week and call gold to test the 3425.00 area on the upside and 3200.00 or so on the downside. The 3000.00 level should provide strong support if the tariffs are pared much lower as is the current scuttlebutt. We remain bullish moving forward.
Last Week in Review
Gold started the week strong trading at 3360.30 for the June contract and started a very steady rally hitting new all-time highs again at 3509.90 early Tuesday morning. From here profit taking took hold and down gold went. Gold fell until Wednesday morning where we hit the weekly low of 3270.80 which was 237.00 from the high earlier in the week. Gold was range bond the rest of the week between 3380.00 and 3280.00 and finished at 3330.20 Friday afternoon.
- The U.S. Dollar Index was steady this week finishing at 99.47.
- The Gold/Silver Ratio narrowed this week from 102.3 to 100.4 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 3360.30 | 32.78 |
| High | 3509.90 | 34.01 |
| Low | 3270.80 | 32.35 |
| Close | 3330.20 | 33.34 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
