Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 165

Reports of Note Due This Week

Key takeaways this week will be updates on U.S. leading indicators, consumer sentiment, durable goods and U.S. flash manufacturing and services surveys.

• Monday, Apr 21– 10:00 A.M. U.S. leading economic indicators.
• Tuesday Apr 22 – none scheduled.
• Wednesday Apr 23 – 9:45 A.M. S&P flash U.S. services PMI and S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, 10:00 A.M. new home sales, 2:00 P.M. Fed Beige Book.
• Thursday Apr 24 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 220,000 versus last weeks 215,000, durable -goods orders, 10:00 A.M. existing home sales.
• Friday Apr 25 – 10:00 A.M. consumer sentiment.

Geopolitics

A one-day Easter ceasefire declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin collapsed Sunday, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of widespread violations. While the Kremlin confirmed there would be no extension of the truce, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched at least 67 assaults on Sunday and used the ceasefire as a PR tactic, proposing instead a 30-day halt on drone and missile strikes against civilians. Ukraine’s foreign minister said Moscow’s response would reveal its true stance on peace, while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Ukraine broke the ceasefire over 1,000 times, causing civilian deaths. The failure to uphold even a brief ceasefire underscores the difficulty facing U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace efforts, though he remained optimistic, saying a deal could still be reached “this week.”

Israeli airstrikes struck approximately 40 locations across Gaza on Friday, a day after Hamas rejected a ceasefire proposal that it said failed to guarantee a complete end to the war. Since breaking a two-month truce last month, Israel has intensified its ground offensive, capturing about one-third of Gaza in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages and disarm. Despite mediation efforts by Egypt to revive the January ceasefire, core disagreements persist. Hamas’ Gaza leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, said the group is prepared to release all remaining 59 hostages in exchange for an end to the war and reconstruction efforts, but rejected Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm as “impossible.” Israel, while not formally responding, has reiterated that Hamas must be dismantled and excluded from any post-war governance. Defense Minister Israel Katz also stated that Israeli troops would remain in Gaza’s buffer zone even after a settlement is reached.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned Wednesday that global trade prospects have sharply worsened due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime and rising trade policy uncertainty. In its latest report, the WTO forecasts a 0.2% decline in world merchandise trade for 2025, with North American exports expected to fall 12.6%. Risks of reciprocal tariffs and broader policy instability could deepen the contraction to 1.5%, disproportionately impacting least-developed countries. This marks a sharp reversal from 2024, when global merchandise trade grew 2.9%. The WTO attributes much of the downturn to Trump’s sweeping tariffs, particularly the 145% effective duty on Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory tariffs from Beijing and global market volatility. Although the U.S. has temporarily lowered most tariffs to 10% for 90 days to allow for negotiations, the WTO cautioned that trade disruptions and redirection—especially away from U.S.-China channels—could significantly reshape export markets and open opportunities for third-party nations.

Pope Francis, the first Jesuit and non-European pontiff in over a millennium, has died at 88, the Vatican confirmed early Monday. Known for his progressive outreach and reform efforts, the Argentine-born pope inspired many by championing the rights of immigrants, the poor, and LGBTQ+ people, while challenging the Catholic Church’s conservative establishment. His health had declined in recent years, and he often relied on mobility aids. His successor will be elected during a conclave of cardinals in the coming weeks.