Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 157

Reports of Note Due This Week

This week, we will see reports on the housing markets, consumer confidence, the trade balance and the gross domestic product. The most important economic report will be the PCE Index which will be released on Friday. The Personal Consumption Index is an important judgement on inflation.

• Monday, Feb 24 – None scheduled.
• Tuesday Feb 25 – 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index. 10:00 A.M. Consumer confidence.
• Wednesday Feb 26 – 10:00 A.M. New home sales.
• Thursday Feb 27 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 225.000 versus last weeks 219,000 and Durable -goods orders. 10:00 A.M. Pending home sales.
• Friday Feb 28 – 8:30 A.M. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE} which will show whether the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is continuing. Also out is Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, advanced retail inventories and advanced wholesale inventories. At 9:45 Chicago Business Barometer PMI for Feb.

Geopolitics

M23 rebels are advancing toward Butembo, a city in eastern Congo, after seizing Goma and Bukavu, key for their strategic and mineral wealth importance. International tensions are rising as Rwanda’s involvement, supporting the M23 with troops, intensifies the conflict. The UK has condemned these actions as a breach of Congo’s sovereignty. Amidst this, the M23’s control extends, impacting regional stability and hinting at broader political ambitions beyond mere territorial gains.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he would resign for peace in Ukraine or immediate NATO membership, emphasizing his focus on Ukraine’s security rather than personal power. Amidst a public disagreement with President Donald Trump, who blamed him for the ongoing conflict, Zelenskyy stressed the importance of his pragmatic position over personal emotions, highlighting his commitment to his country’s needs and the Ukrainian people’s opinion over external narratives. This statement comes as international discussions on the conflict continue, with Zelenskyy advocating for Ukraine’s active involvement in peace negotiations.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa received a warm reception in Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the former Assad regime. His visits were seen as pivotal in demonstrating his potential to unify Syria post-revolution. Despite his past ties to jihadist groups, Sharaa has made efforts to present a reformed image, engaging internationally to ensure a peaceful and inclusive future for Syria. His interactions aim to reassure both domestic and international audiences of his commitment to transformation and stability in Syria.

Friedrich Merz led the conservatives to victory in Germany’s national election, positioning them as the majority in the Bundestag. The far-right AfD surged as the second-largest party, a historic high for them. The election, prompted by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, centered on economic stagnation and migration policies. Merz, opposing a coalition with the AfD, aims to form a government by Easter and stressed unifying Europe against pressures from the US and Russia. The election underscored deep political shifts and the potential for significant policy changes in Germany.