Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 155

Reports of Note Due This Week

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday.  Wednesday starts off with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) giving investors a peek at January inflation, while the rest of the week brings us wholesale, import, export and U.S. Retail sales.

• Monday, Feb 10 – none scheduled.
• Tuesday Feb 11 – 6:00 A.M. NFIB optimism index. 10:00 A.M. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress and the Senate Banking Committee.
• Wednesday Feb 12 – 8:30 A.M. Consumer Price Index (January)and at 2:00 P.M. it is the monthly U.S. federal budget.
• Thursday Feb 13 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 208.000 versus last weeks 219,000 and Producer Price Index (PPI).
• Friday Feb 14 – 8:30 A.M. U.S. Retail Sales, Import/Export price indexes. Then at 9:15 A.M. we see Industrial production and capacity utilization for January and at 10:00, business inventories.

Geopolitics

President Donald Trump has reiterated plans to have the U.S. take over Gaza once the conflict ends, proposing to develop it into a new region and resettle Palestinians in “safer and more beautiful communities.” Israeli officials have not provided details about the plan, and it has sparked international criticism and disbelief, being labeled by some as ethnic cleansing. The proposal dismisses the Palestinian bid for statehood. The White House has stated Trump aims to rebuild Gaza without deploying U.S. troops, and it has not committed to forcibly relocating Palestinians during reconstruction.

Thursday Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC), alleging it targets the U.S. and Israel unfairly. The sanctions include financial restrictions and visa bans on ICC staff involved in probing American or Israeli actions. This move has drawn criticism from 79 countries, asserting it undermines international law and could shield war criminals from accountability. The ICC, unsupported by the U.S. and Israel, remains committed to its judicial duties despite these challenges.

The ceasefire in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is faltering as M23 rebels, supported by Rwanda, continue to seize more territory, including the strategic mining town of Nyabibwe. Despite a declared unilateral ceasefire earlier in the week, M23 has advanced towards Bukavu, escalating fears of a regional conflict. The ongoing violence has resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement, especially in the city of Goma, which the rebels captured previously. The international community, including the United Nations, is deeply concerned about the humanitarian impact and potential war crimes.

Lebanon has formed its first full government since 2022, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, amid ongoing severe economic crisis. The new government aims to rebuild trust domestically and internationally, address economic reforms, and manage regional relationships, especially concerning the recent ceasefire with Israel and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. The government marks a notable shift away from leaders associated with Hezbollah, aiming to strengthen ties with Gulf nations and consolidate state control over military operations.