Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 151

Reports of Note Due This Week

Investors this week will focus on inflation as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. Also being released will be retail sales, housing starts, building permits as well as the NY Empire state manufacturing survey.

• Monday, Jan 13 – 2:00 P.M. Monthly U.S. federal budget.
• Tuesday Jan 14 – 6:00 A.M. NFIB optimism index. 8:30 A.M. Producer Price Index (PPI) and at 2:00 P.M. Fed Beige Book
• Wednesday Jan 15 – 8:30 A.M. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and NY Empire state manufacturing survey.
• Thursday Jan 16 – 8:30 A.M. the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected at 210.000 versus last weeks 201,000, U.S. retail sales and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. At 10:00 A.M. we see the release of the business inventories and the home builder confidence index.
• Friday Jan 17 – 8:30 A.M. Housing starts and building permits followed at 9:15 A.M. with industrial production and capacity utilization.

Geopolitics

Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party and as prime minister, citing internal party conflicts and polarization. He plans to step down after a new leader is chosen through a competitive process. This follows the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, disagreements over handling new U.S. tariffs, and quickly declining public support for Trudeau. The Liberals face challenges from the Conservative Party, and Trudeau’s decision comes ahead of potential elections set for late October.

President-elect Donald Trump, during a news conference, mentioned he might use military force to control the Panama Canal and Greenland for economic and security purposes. He also spoke of using “economic force” to acquire Canada, suggesting these territories would enhance U.S. national security. Trump’s comments have stirred controversy and highlighted his aggressive stance on expanding U.S. influence. His proposals include significant geopolitical actions, like changing the Gulf of Mexico’s name to “the Gulf of America” and imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third term despite allegations of electoral fraud and substantial opposition, both domestically and internationally. The inauguration was heavily secured, reflecting tensions and protests against his continued leadership. Amidst international sanctions and local unrest, opposition leader María Corina Machado faced detention, increasing global concern over repression in Venezuela. The international community, including the U.S., has criticized Maduro’s legitimacy, further isolating his regime amid ongoing economic and political crises.

Southern California faced severe wildfires, notably the Palisades and Eaton fires, which devastated Los Angeles County. These fires resulted in at least 24 fatalities and the destruction of thousands of structures. The economic impact is estimated to be between $135 billion and $150 billion, potentially making this disaster the costliest in U.S. history. Approximately 150,000 residents were under evacuation orders, with 64,000 experiencing power outages. Governor Gavin Newsom has called for a comprehensive “Marshall Plan” to rebuild the affected areas, emphasizing the need for significant investment and long-term planning.