Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 142
Issue 142 – The Week of November 4, 2024
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 2697.00 | 2773.00 |
| 2635.00 | 2790.00 |
| 2600.00 | 2840.00 |
| 2560.00 | 2890.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 32.75 | 33.15 |
| 31.40 | 34.00 |
| 30.60 | 34.50 |
| 30.15 | 35.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
The 2024 presidential election will be front and center on Tuesday. On Thursday we will see the FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
- Monday, Nov 4 – At 10:00 A.M. we see the release of factory orders. Expectations are for a dip to -0.5% from -0.2%.
- Tuesday Nov 5 – 8:30 A.M. brings the U.S. trade deficit which has a median forecast of down to 84.0 billion for Sept. from 70.4 billion. Followed at 10:00 A.M. with the release of ISM services.
- U.S Presidential Election.
- Wednesday Nov 6 – At 9:45 A.M. sees the release of S&P final U.S. services PMI for October.
- Thursday Nov 7 – We start the day at 8:30 A.M. with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected to be up to 220,000 versus last weeks 216,000. Also, at 8:30 A.M. is the U.S productivity(prelim). 10:00 A.M. brings Wholesale inventories. 2:00 P.M. sees the release of the FOMC interest rate decision followed by Fed Chair Powell press conference. 3:00 P.M. we will see the release of consumer credit.
- Friday Nov 8 – At 10:00 A.M. has the release of Consumer sentiment (prelim).
Geopolitics
Devastating flash floods in Valencia, Spain, have resulted in the deaths of at least 155 people after a year’s worth of rain fell in just eight hours, triggering the worst natural disaster in the country’s recent history. Torrential rains caused severe flooding across eastern and southern Spain, pushing cars into piles against city structures and leaving widespread destruction. The Spanish government has mobilized over 1,000 soldiers to aid in rescue operations, with many areas still inaccessible due to debris and mud-covered roads. Emergency services continue to search for survivors and assess the full extent of the damage.
North Korea has claimed its newly tested intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, is “the world’s strongest,” a statement largely seen as propaganda. The missile test demonstrated improved capabilities, suggesting advances in North Korea’s ICBM technology that could potentially reach the U.S. mainland. However, experts believe North Korea still faces several technological hurdles, such as mastering warhead reentry, altitude control, and guidance systems. The test occurs amid heightened tensions due to North Korea’s military collaboration with Russia, including troop deployments supporting the war in Ukraine.
An Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed over 90 people, intensifying tensions following Israel’s ban on a key UN aid agency, UNRWA. This law may severely restrict aid operations in Gaza. Concurrently, Hezbollah, influenced by Iran, named Sheikh Naim Kassem as its new leader following the assassination of its previous leader by Israel. The situation remains volatile with significant international concern over humanitarian impacts and regional stability.
The Call
Gold made new all-time highs last week and had a pullback after the PCE and nonfarm payrolls numbers. Upcoming events this week are going to generate volatility! First is the uncertainty of the results of the U.S. Presidential Election and whether there will be violence if Trump loses. This will be followed on Thursday by the FOMC interest rate decision and the unemployment rate announcement. We believe gold will fare reasonably well testing both sides of a widened range between 2650.00 and 2850.00 per ounce and the net result will be higher gold prices going forward towards year end.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened on Sunday evening at 2738.30 and began to rally almost immediately heading up to make another all-time high at 2790.90 on Wednesday. Three attempts to rally higher than 2800.00 failed and then the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index came out Thursday morning and the selling accelerated taking gold down sharply hitting the weekly low of 2726.00 by lunchtime. A small bounce began Friday morning but did not last and gold closed near the lows at 2735.30.
Silver opened Sunday night at 33.73, dipping a few cents before the rally started. Silver rallied Monday and Tuesday hitting the weekly high of 34.60 Tuesday afternoon. The selloff started later Tuesday evening falling 2.00 an ounce through lunchtime on Thursday with the PCE relelease accelerating the move lower. A small rally Friday morning fizzled and the weekly low was established at 32.335.
- The U.S. Dollar Index was stronger again this week and finished at 104.28.
- The Gold/Silver Ratio was weaker at 84.4 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 2738.30 | 33.70 |
| High | 2790.90 | 34.60 |
| Low | 2726.00 | 32.33 |
| Close | 2735.60 | 32.55 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
